rationale:

To forecast the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's federal funds target rate in July 2031, we must first establish the correct baseline: as of June 2026, the target range is 3.50%-3.75% (upper bound 3.75%) following a hawkish hold federalreserve.gov.

Looking five years out, our median estimate of 3.50% balances the Fed's structural expectations against those of the market and other institutional projections. The Fed's June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) places the longer-run median

rationale:

Current status: As of July 2026, the ECB deposit facility rate sits at 2.25% following a recent 25bp hike—the first increase since 2023—driven by an energy-price shock stemming from the Iran/Middle East conflict ecb.europa.eu. Looking five years ahead to July 2031, the rate will likely have decoupled from this localized shock, anchoring instead to the ECB's long-run neutral rate (r*).

Anchors and Base Case: The ECB’s neutral rate is broadly estimated to fall between 1.75% and 2.50%. According to the

rationale:

Our central expectation for the Bank of England base rate in July 2031 is 3.75%, balancing elevated market pricing against lower estimates of the UK's long-run neutral rate and macroeconomic cyclicality.

First, to establish the current baseline: as of July 2026, the Bank Rate stands at 3.75% bankofengland.co.uk. The MPC's recent 7-2 vote to hold—with two members favoring a hike to 4.0% bankofengland.co.uk—reflects near-term caution driven by sticky inflation, with headline CPI at 2.8% and core at 2.6% ons.gov.uk.

Lo

rationale:

As of mid-2026, the Bank of Japan's uncollateralized overnight call rate stands at 1.0% boj.or.jp, marking a significant and ongoing normalization of monetary policy. Forecasting this rate for July 2031—a five-year horizon—hinges fundamentally on the BoJ's terminal or neutral rate, adjusted for the balance of intervening cyclical shocks.

The median estimate of 1.5% reflects a convergence of institutional baselines and macroeconomic consensus. The IMF explicitly projects Japan's overnight call ra