These estimates reflect the likely public reporting date, which typically occurs in Q1–Q2 of the year following the qualifying calendar year. The median estimate of April 2030 therefore assumes that 2029 will be the first deployment year where Open RAN surpasses the 20% threshold.
Current Market Dynamics: Open RAN held a mid-single-digit share of the RAN market in 2024 and an estimated 8–10% in 2025 delloro.com. Because the broader 5G RAN market has stabilized and is projected to remai
Core Thesis The resolution criteria establish a demanding, multi-part bar: an independent technical benchmark confirming Open RAN matches or exceeds integrated RAN on latency, throughput, and reliability across at least three commercial dense-urban deployments. While Open RAN adoption is accelerating, current evidence points to a median resolution in early 2030. This accounts for the time required to mature massive-MIMO technologies, scale them in commercial urban environments, and under
The premise that Huawei's global RAN share is currently falling due to Open RAN and geopolitical pressure is contradicted by recent market data. In reality, Huawei's global RAN revenue share has been rising, reaching an estimated 31.3% in 2023 techblog.comsoc.org, roughly 34% in 2024 linkedin.com, and gaining further ground in 2025 telecoms.comtelecoms.com. Industry trackers such as Dell'Oro and Omdia confirm Huawei remains the dominant global leader, with the top five vendors consolidating about 94-96% of the market
The distribution for this milestone is bimodal and wide, driven by strict definitional criteria: the operator must be the 'leading' one in its country, must deploy Open RAN on '>50% of 5G sites' (not just traffic), and must explicitly announce this milestone. THE EARLY TAIL: NTT DOCOMO AND RETROSPECTIVE QUALIFICATION. There is a meaningful probability that this milestone has already occurred. Japan's NTT DOCOMO, undisputed as the country's largest telecommunications provider , publicly a
The timeline for this event hinges on the formal 6G standardization schedule and how strictly the resolution criteria are interpreted. 3GPP Release 21 is established as the first normative 6G release, with a relatively locked schedule: a Stage-2 architecture freeze in June 2028, a Stage-3 protocol freeze in December 2028, and an ASN.1/OpenAPI code freeze in March 2029 3gpp.orgtechblog.comsoc.orgericsson.com3gpp.org. ITU's IMT-2030 process runs in parallel, targeting final specifications toward the end of the d
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