What will Alphabet report as Other Bets segment operating loss for full-year 2026?

rationale:

The median forecast for Alphabet's full-year 2026 Other Bets operating loss sits at $8.1 billion, anchored by the $3.899 billion loss already reported for the first half of the year https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/2026q1-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000066/googexhibit991q22026.htm. With Q1 recording a $2.100 billion loss and Q2 at $1.799 billion Alphabet Announces Second Quarter 2026 Results https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001652044/000165204426000048/goog-20260331.htm, the full-year outcome hinges entirely on the second-half operational run rate and the risk of year-end accounting charges. The distribution places the 10th percentile at $7.5 billion, the 25th percentile at $7.8 billion, the 75th percentile at $8.8 billion, and the 90th percentile at $9.9 billion.

Second-half operational costs are expected to run at or above Q2 levels due to Waymo's aggressive expansion. Between August and October 2026, Waymo launched or expanded service in Houston, Las Vegas, San Antonio, San Diego, and Tampa, while introducing a new vehicle fleet https://waymo.com/blog/2026/10/waymo-closes-5-billion-debt-financing/. To accelerate this scaling, Waymo secured a $5 billion term loan in early October https://waymo.com/blog/2026/10/waymo-closes-5-billion-debt-financing/. Given rapid volume growth—reaching roughly 500,000 paid weekly rides by August against a year-end goal of 1 million Waymo Revenue 2026: $355M Run Rate, 500K Rides—baseline losses are estimated at $1.9 billion to $2.2 billion per quarter. This brings the fundamental operational baseline for the full year to roughly $7.9 billion to $8.1 billion.

The pending combination of GFiber with Astound is not expected to materially alter the 2026 segment operating loss. GFiber is classified as held for sale and its results remain in Other Bets until the transaction closes, which is expected in late 2026 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001652044/000165204426000048/goog-20260331.htm goog-20260630. Upon closing, Alphabet will account for its 49.99% retained stake under the equity method https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001652044/000165204426000048/goog-20260331.htm. Because the deal will likely only affect a few weeks of Q4, and because any gain or loss on deconsolidation typically falls outside segment operating results, the divestiture is estimated to swing the baseline by no more than ±$0.1 billion.

The forecast distribution is distinctly skewed toward larger losses—with the 90th percentile reaching $9.9 billion—driven primarily by the risk of a major valuation-based compensation charge in Q4. Waymo is overwhelmingly likely to remain in the reporting segment through 2026 , leaving Other Bets to fully absorb any year-end valuation charges. In Q4 2025, Alphabet recorded a $2.1 billion charge tied to the remeasurement of liability-classified Waymo stock awards following a $126 billion investment round https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_financials/2025/q4/2025q4-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf Alphabet (GOOGL) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000018/goog-20251231.htm. Although Waymo's recent funding was debt rather than equity https://waymo.com/blog/2026/10/waymo-closes-5-billion-debt-financing/, its rapid operational progress and secondary-market pricing around $156 per share Waymo Stock Pre-IPO Waymo Stock Pre-IPO suggest its internal equity valuation remains robust. There is roughly a 25–30% probability of another substantial remeasurement charge at year-end, which cleanly accounts for the long right tail.