What will Alphabet report as Other Bets segment operating loss for full-year 2026?

Alphabet’s Other Bets operating loss for the first half of 2026 is already locked in at $3.899 billion, comprising a $2.1 billion loss in Q1 s206.q4cdn.com and roughly $1.8 billion in Q2 sec.gov. The Q2 10-Q confirms this reflects a $1.4 billion year-over-year expansion in losses, driven largely by higher employee compensation and third-party service fees as Waymo aggressively scales 2 sources. With Waymo expanding into new cities, rolling out the "Ojai" vehicle, and prepping international launches, core operating costs are expected to remain elevated. Extrapolating a flat-to-modestly-rising underlying run-rate of roughly $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion per quarter yields a baseline second-half loss of $4.0 billion to $4.2 billion.

The upcoming deconsolidation of Google Fiber (GFiber) provides only limited downward pressure on these core operating losses. Alphabet agreed in March 2026 to contribute GFiber into a newly formed entity, with the deal slated to close in late 2026 s206.q4cdn.com. Crucially, GFiber met held-for-sale criteria as of March 31, 2026, meaning Alphabet already ceased depreciating its $7.1 billion of long-lived assets 2 sources. This cessation largely explains the sequential drop in operating losses from Q1 to Q2. Because GFiber’s results remain in the Other Bets segment until closing, and the eventual deconsolidation gain or loss will likely sit in other income rather than segment operating income, the Q4 close will only remove a partial quarter of residual (non-depreciation) OPEX. Consequently, the core run-rate is fairly well anchored near $8.0 billion to $8.2 billion for the full year.

The dominant uncertainty—and the driver of a pronounced right-skewed tail—is the potential for another stock-based compensation (SBC) true-up tied to Waymo's valuation. Alphabet’s liability-classified Other Bet employee awards are remeasured at fair value, a mechanism that triggered a massive $2.1 billion charge in Q4 2025 when Waymo's valuation spiked sec.gov. Waymo's subsequent $16 billion funding round in February 2026 marked the unit at a $126 billion post-money valuation 2 sources. While H1 2026 expenses appear to have absorbed ongoing accruals at this mark without a new discrete step-up, any further valuation event in H2 2026—such as a new secondary mark, tender offer, or year-end 409A update—would mechanically drive another multi-hundred-million to multi-billion-dollar charge.

The median estimate of $8.17 billion reflects the base-case run-rate, assuming H2 operating losses land in the vicinity of $4.1 billion to $4.3 billion with only modest relief from the GFiber close. The downside (a smaller magnitude of loss) is firmly capped near $7.53 billion, representing a scenario where expansion costs flatline and GFiber closes faster than anticipated. Conversely, there is roughly a 25% to 30% probability of a material Q4 SBC valuation true-up. This risk pulls the 75th and 90th percentiles sharply upward to $8.97 billion and $10.43 billion, respectively, allowing room for a $1 billion to $2.5 billion charge if Waymo's equity mark is updated again before year-end.