When will Alphabet first report Other Bets quarterly revenue exceeding $1 billion in a single quarter?

Summary Current Other Bets revenue hovers around $344-450M per quarter, reporting $411M in Q1 2026 2 sources. However, this baseline is set to shrink significantly. Verily was deconsolidated in Q1 2026 abc.xyz, removing $50-100M per quarter, and GFiber is expected to spin out in Q4 2026 2 sources, removing another ~$200-250M per quarter. This leaves Waymo and Wing as the primary drivers, dropping the baseline Other Bets revenue to roughly $150-250M per quarter entering 2027. Reaching the $1 billion threshold will therefore require Waymo to scale massively to ~$850-900M in quarterly revenue. Crucially, while Waymo averages ~$16-20 per ride sacra.com and reached 500K rides per week in early 2026 2 sources, this translates to $100-130M per quarter, not the inflated figures suggested by some preliminary calculations. To reach the threshold, Waymo needs closer to 4 million rides per week. Rapid expansion into 20+ cities, including international markets like London and Tokyo 2 sources, supports a strong growth narrative. Projections range from Bloomberg Intelligence estimating Waymo could approach $1 billion quarterly around 2029 reddit.com, to more conservative estimates from Morgan Stanley predicting only $2.5 billion in annual revenue ($625M per quarter) by 2030 sacra.com. Balancing the shrinking baseline against Waymo's aggressive scaling points to mid-2030 as the most likely timeline for Other Bets to cross the $1 billion quarterly mark.

Strongest Arguments for Sooner

• Aggressive fleet expansion, supported by Alphabet's $16B funding abc.xyz and new partnerships like Hyundai's deployment of 50K IONIQ 5 robotaxis by 2028, could drastically accelerate ride volumes.
• Waymo's target to reach 1 million rides per week by the end of 2026 2 sources demonstrates a proven ability to consistently double ride volume annually.
• Non-ride revenue could bridge the gap quickly, particularly through lucrative technology licensing deals with automakers (Toyota, Hyundai) and expanded Wing delivery partnerships with DoorDash and Walmart abc.xyz.

Strongest Arguments for Later

• The structural deconsolidations of Verily fiercehealthcare.com and GFiber levelheadedinvesting.com drastically lower the starting point for Other Bets, mathematically forcing Waymo to cover roughly $800-900 million in net new quarterly growth.
• Growth percentages will inevitably decelerate as Waymo transitions from early scaling to maturity, encountering harder logistical and operational bottlenecks.
• Major analysts hold conservative outlooks; Morgan Stanley models Waymo at only $2.5 billion annual revenue by 2030 sacra.com, and TD Cowen projects slower momentum with $6.1 billion in gross bookings by 2034, pushing the milestone well into the 2031-2032 range.

Key Uncertainties

• The exact timing and financial impact of GFiber's expected Q4 2026 deconsolidation levelheadedinvesting.com.
• Whether Alphabet spins off or IPOs Waymo before the milestone is reached, which would instantly make the $1 billion Other Bets target impossible.
• Regulatory hurdles, city-level restrictions, or safety incidents that could temporarily halt or slow autonomous vehicle deployments in key revenue-generating markets.