How many currently/actively sitting non-US G7 national parliamentarians will have signed one of ControlAI's campaign statements by December 31, 2028?

Baseline and Electoral Mechanics As of mid-2026, ControlAI’s valid count sits near 145 individually named signatories: roughly 125–130 in the UK controlai.org and about 16 in Canada (excluding a ~22-member Bloc Québécois endorsement, which does not count as individually named under the criteria 2 sources). Because this question counts only those still sitting on December 31, 2028, retention is a key driver. Fortunately for the baseline, the ~32 UK devolved legislators are structurally locked in following recent elections, and both the Canadian parliament and the current UK Commons are likely to sit into 2029 en.wikipedia.org. However, life peers will suffer modest attrition from age and hereditary reforms controlai.org, and legislatures in France, Italy, and Japan carry much higher electoral churn risk before the resolution date data.ipu.org.

$0 (No Donation) Without this specific $1M, ControlAI is not funding-constrained to the point of collapse. The organization maintains its existing UK and Canada momentum and is already staffing up and briefing lawmakers in Germany 2 sources. However, UK growth is visibly decelerating—from over 90 names added in the first year to perhaps 40–50 per year now—as the most receptive legislators are exhausted 2 sources. The median path under the status quo sees the UK and Canada lists mature slowly alongside a coin-flip chance that the 100+ briefings in Germany convert into a named statement. Net of attrition, this pushes the count to a median in the low 220s.

$1,000,000 Donation to ControlAI A $1M unrestricted donation mechanistically buys roughly 3–4 FTE-years of international advocacy. Because the marginal UK pool is thinning, this money's highest leverage is deploying dedicated campaign leads to new jurisdictions—converting the warm pipeline in Germany into a named list, doubling Canadian capacity, and possibly piloting a campaign in France or Japan futuresearch.ai. It also provides a signaling effect that de-risks the organization for follow-on funders. This intervention adds roughly 45 valid signatures to the median, pushing it to the upper 260s, while significantly fattening the right tail because successful new-country launches are lumpy (a German or Japanese statement could add 30–60 names at once).

Constraints on the Impact The donation's effect is capped by three important frictions. First, fungibility and crowding-out: ControlAI is pursuing a $50M/yr scale-up lesswrong.com, so $1M is a modest slice that other safety funders might partly have supplied anyway. Second, misallocation risk: the organization’s stated highest-leverage theater is the US alignmentforum.org, which does not count for this resolution. Finally, non-Anglosphere political culture: individual legislators in whipped continental and Japanese parliaments signing an NGO statement is institutionally rarer than in Westminster, dampening conversion rates abroad.

Key Uncertainties Both alternatives share wide tails driven by exogenous events. A salient AI accident or "warning shot" could turn superintelligence regulation into a mainstream bandwagon issue, pushing the count well past 400 as signing becomes politically costless controlai.org. Conversely, a surprise early UK general election in 2027–2028 could wipe out 25–40 sitting MP signatories en.wikipedia.org, dragging the final tally down significantly in either branch.