EVIDENCE SHEET v3.2 (2026-08-14) for…

Taking the most recent flagship model from each of OpenAI, Anthropic and Google DeepMind as of 2026-08-13, what is the median number of days elapsed between first production use by employees inside the lab and public release?✓#1

days70days

rationale:

This assessment estimates the true median number of days between internal production use and general availability for the most recent flagship systems as of August 2026: Anthropic's Claude Opus 5, OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol, and Google DeepMind's Gemini 3.7 Flash. Because developers rarely publish the start dates of internal dogfooding, this is a latent-truth estimation. Anthropic's Claude Mythos Preview documents an internal-to-public gap of approximately 106 days 3 sources. However, t

Set against related questions on future regulatory delays, this estimate was slightly adjusted upward to better align the 2026 baseline with the broader trend of widening testing windows.

Weighed against 2 other forecasts.

help.openai.comdigest.grandeaihub.comreddit.comsuprmind.aiforum.effectivealtruism.org+251 more

For flagship models released between 2027-01-01 and 2028-12-31 by the three largest AI labs by revenue, what will the median number of days be between first internal production use and public release?✓#2

days90days

rationale:

The target is the latent true median gap from the first internal production use by employees to general availability for flagship models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google in 2027–2028. The most robust historical anchor is Anthropic's Mythos sequence, which established a gap of roughly 106 days 44 sources. We estimate the 2026 median for this gap at around 68 days . However, accelerating competitive cadence and shrinking training-to-

Set against related questions, this was raised slightly to reflect a cohesive view that incoming regulatory and audit requirements will structurally lengthen pre-release testing.

Weighed against 2 other forecasts.

futureoflife.orgcasar.house.govamericafirstpolicy.comthehill.comdlapiper.com+312 more

For frontier capability thresholds first crossed between 2027-01-01 and 2029-12-31, what will the median lag be, in days, before a second organization matches them?✓#3

days115days

rationale:

Evaluating competitor capability matching lags relies on balancing algorithmic diffusion against structural moats. On the Epoch Capabilities Index, models have frequently taken the lead since GPT-4 epoch.ai, and recent measurements show the gap from the closed frontier to the best open-weights models flat-to-slightly-widening at around 3 to 4 months epoch.ai. We project that the major closed labs will face an 85-day internal-to-public deployment gap by 2027–2028 [fc:b106a419-8438

Assessed against the broader timeline of internal deployment delays and competitor capability matching, the distribution remains largely consistent, anticipating moderate structural lags before followers catch up.

Weighed against 2 other forecasts.

ai-2027.comepochai.substack.complanned-obsolescence.orgsuprmind.aimwi.westpoint.edu+176 more

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