Will the FBI or another federal law…

Will the FBI or another federal law enforcement agency execute a search warrant, conduct a raid, seize records/equipment, or otherwise conduct a law-enforcement search at the Berkeley, California office of Constellation (also known as Constellation Institute, an AI safety research nonprofit located at 2150 Shattuck Ave, Berkeley, CA), or at the offices/workspace of any nonprofit organization operating out of Constellation's shared workspace, by December 31, 2027, where the action is substantially motivated by political/ideological hostility toward AI safety or effective altruism rather than an unrelated apolitical matter?✓#1

probability: 5%

rationale:

There is currently a severely elevated environment of political hostility directed toward the AI safety and effective altruism (EA) ecosystems. Administration figures have openly attacked the movement, using phrases like the "Doomer Industrial Complex" and contrasting EA with "Americanism" 44 sources. Constellation's shared workspace at 2150 Shattuck Avenue serves as a central hub for exactly this ecosystem, hosting organizations like METR and Redwood Research, alongside ov

Evaluated alongside related questions, this estimate was maintained at 5%; while broader regulatory and congressional actions against the movement are highly likely , the legal and logistical barriers to a physical search at a specific address remain much higher.

Weighed against 1 other forecast.

cbsnews.combuiltinsf.comaiweekly.cocongress.govsignalcleveland.org+371 more

Will AI safety research organizations (e.g. Constellation, Open Philanthropy/Coefficient Giving, MIRI, Redwood Research, the Centre for Effective Altruism, or other prominent AI-safety/effective-altruism-aligned nonprofits or their funders) face some politically motivated federal investigation, regulatory action, or congressional inquiry from the Trump administration or its congressional allies by December 31, 2027 -- excluding an FBI raid/search warrant execution (which is covered by a separate question)?✓#2

probability: 84%

rationale:

As of mid-September 2026, the administration's campaign against the effective altruism (EA) and AI safety movements remains purely rhetorical. High-level officials have labeled the movement a "Doomer Industrial Complex" and framed it as a "dystopian" obstacle to U.S. AI dominance 3 sources. However, this rhetoric has not yet translated into new concrete federal actions against specific nonprofits. Despite this, the probability of a qualifying event by the end of 2027 is high becau

Evaluated alongside related questions, this probability holds steady at 84%; although physical law enforcement raids are unlikely , low-barrier actions like congressional subpoenas or appellate litigation in the Anthropic case are highly probable.

Weighed against 1 other forecast.

bostonglobe.comopenaccessweek.orgnewsfilter.iolw.comprojects.propublica.org+270 more

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