About 229 days remain until the 2027-04-15 resolution, and the status quo is pre-season with no snowfall yet; if the currently forecast very strong El Niño and CPC warm-tilt simply verify, Boston likely finishes below its relatively high 15-year normal cpc.ncep.noaa.govcpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Using different scopes: regionally the Northeast is warm-leaning, metro-by-metro Boston is colder than NYC/PHL and has better Nor'easter upside, but it is still coastal and vulnerable to rain/mix, with regional consistency confir
Adjusted the distribution slightly to reflect regional consistency regarding the risk of rain mixing into coastal storms .
(a) The resolution date is roughly 8 months away. (b) NYC's 15-year normal is a solid baseline (around 26-29 inches). (c) Analogs for strong El Niño years show a very bimodal distribution for NYC: 21% and 29% in 1998/2024, versus 104% and 125% in 1983/2016. (d) A LOW outcome is highly likely if the El Niño-induced Canadian high-pressure ridge prevents cold air from reaching the mid-Atlantic coast, leaving NYC in the warm sector of storms. (e) A HIGH outcome remains entirely possible because NYC
Slightly lowered the median to align with neighboring I-95 metros under the warm El Niño expectation, while extending the upper bound.
(a) About 8 months remain. (b) Philadelphia's baseline is lower than the other metros (around 19-23 inches). (c) Analog years for PHL show the most extreme volatility of all four metros: ranging from just 4% of normal (1997-98) to an astonishing 201% (1982-83). (d) A LOW outcome is easily foreseeable because PHL is furthest south among the I-95 metros; if storms track slightly inland or lack cold air, PHL will get completely washed out with rain. There is a high probability of warm rain events s
Shifted the median downward to reflect the high probability of warm rain events suppressing totals in the southern I-95 corridor during strong El Niño winters.
(a) About 8 months until resolution. (b) Pittsburgh's 15-year normal is relatively high (around 40.5 inches). (c) In stark contrast to the coastal metros, PIT has historically been very consistent during strong El Niño analog years: 100% of the past 4 major analogs produced below-normal snow, tightly clustered between 40% and 74%. (d) A LOW outcome is heavily favored because strong El Niños typically cut off the persistent, deep Arctic air outbreaks required for consistent lake-effect snow, whic
Forecast maintained, as the 64% median perfectly aligns with the regional expectation of consistent snow suppression in the Ohio Valley.
A predicted 'Super El Niño' for the 2026-2027 winter strongly favors above-normal temperatures and below-normal snowfall for the Great Lakes region due to a northern-displaced jet stream and more precipitation falling as rain. Historical analogs of strong El Niño winters (like 1982-83, 2015-16, and 2023-24) show Buffalo averaging roughly 67% of its normal snowfall, with values ranging from 55% to 79%. The extreme warmth of Lake Erie might fuel a major early-season lake effect event, keeping the
Forecast held steady, keeping the median at 72% to balance a broadly mild winter with the persistent risk of early-season lake-effect storms.
Much like Buffalo, Rochester's seasonal snowfall is heavily suppressed during strong El Niño events. Historically, Rochester has seen between 51% and 98% of its normal snowfall during such winters, averaging around 67.5%. The projected high temperatures will likely reduce lake-effect snow accumulation because the temperature differential between Lake Ontario and the air won't be sufficient for sustained heavy snow. Given the historical base rates and the 90%+ chance of a Super El Niño, a sub-100
Forecast maintained, keeping the median around 70% in line with historical analogs and neighboring Great Lakes cities.
Syracuse is New York's snowiest major metro, but it too struggles during Super El Niño patterns. Historical analogs show Syracuse receiving around 52% to 106% of its normal snow (averaging 72%) during comparable winters. Although there is some contradictory evidence of occasional high-snow El Niño years (like 1997-98's 106%), the consensus of climate models projects above-normal temperatures that will likely result in more rain and ice than snow. Reflecting the region's broader trend of below-av
Forecast maintained, keeping the median at 75% to reflect the region's broader trend of below-average snowfall during strong El Niño events.
Albany's snowfall is much more volatile than the lake-effect cities during El Niño events, relying heavily on coastal Nor'easters rather than Great Lakes moisture. Historical analogs for strong El Niños show massive variation: from a staggering 127% of normal in 1982-83 to an abysmal 29% in 2015-16. Because a Super El Niño injects significant moisture into the subtropical jet stream, a single major Nor'easter crossing a pocket of cold air could push Albany over 100%, even in a warm winter. Thus,
Adjusted slightly to align with the broader regional expectation of strong boom-or-bust dynamics while keeping the median below normal.
(a) 229 days remain until the end of the snow season. (b) The status quo is a projected historic 'Super El Niño' for 2026-27, which typically pushes the storm track south and brings milder air to New England. (c) Taking a broader view, while overall seasonal averages trend warmer and wetter, El Niño can still produce major coastal storms. (d) A LOW outcome is highly plausible due to the warm southern jet stream pushing the rain/snow line north, similar to 1997-98 when Portland saw just 45% of it
Refined percentiles to better align with historical analogs for strong El Niño patterns in northern New England .
229 days remain until resolution on 2027-04-15. The current/status-quo value is effectively 0% because the season has not begun; if snowfall stayed negligible all winter, BTV would resolve near 0. In regional scope, the Northeast overall still leans subnormal under the >90% very-strong El Niño and warm CPC outlook cpc.ncep.noaa.govsnowbrains.com; in local scope, Burlington is colder than PWM and BDL so it has less mixing risk, but it is also vulnerable to being on the dry/northern side of the storm track durin
Adjusted slightly upward to account for the inland northern advantage during mixed-precipitation storm tracks .
(a) About 229 days remain until the official seasonal snowfall counts wrap up. (b) The background state is a very strong El Niño, bringing an active southern storm track. (c) Hartford lies in a precarious zone where a few degrees determine rain vs. snow. (d) A LOW outcome is common (e.g., 40% in 1997-98, 66% in 2015-16) as coastal systems wrap warm air off the Atlantic, leading to rain. (e) A HIGH outcome is possible if high-latitude blocking forces storms to track just offshore, pulling down co
Maintained the forecast closely while smoothing the percentiles to match the regional inland baseline .
(a) 229 days remain until the outcome is known. (b) Currently zero snow, transitioning into a Super El Niño winter. (c) Washington DC's snowfall is notoriously volatile and heavily dependent on singular massive storms. (d) A LOW outcome is a strong base rate in Super El Niños; in 1997-98, IAD recorded an abysmal 0.1 inches (~0.5%). The warm ridge often makes DC too warm for snow, resulting in a high likelihood of rain washing out seasonal totals, consistent with nearby Mid-Atlantic cities [fc:4a
Lowered the median to align with the high likelihood of rain washing out seasonal totals, consistent with nearby Mid-Atlantic cities .
229 days remain until the Apr. 15, 2027 resolution. Status quo is preseason with 0 snowfall on the books, so climatology would imply roughly 100% if winter were average; if the current very-strong El Nino setup simply persists, Baltimore is the least average-like of the four and looks bimodal rather than centered tightly on 100 stormbag.copolymarket.com. At the broad regional scope, El Nino boosts the southern jet and Mid-Atlantic storminess, but at the station scope BWI is highly dependent on whether co
Set against related questions for nearby I-95 cities , this forecast was adjusted downward to harmonize the likelihood of warm rain events heavily suppressing the median.
(a) 229 days remain until the season's end. (b) The current climate driver is a >90% probability of a Very Strong El Nino, which generally suppresses snowfall in the lower Great Lakes. (c) Looking at the Midwest regionally, there's a strong base rate of precipitation and snowfall deficits during these ENSO states. Set against related questions, my distribution aligns with the severe snow suppression typically expected across the Great Lakes . (d) A LOW ou
Set against related questions, this distribution was shifted downward to better align with the severe snow suppression typically expected across the Great Lakes .
With 229 days remaining, Detroit (DTW) faces a seasonal outlook dominated by a very strong El Niño. Research notes that 75% of strong El Niño winters in Michigan result in 25-50% less snowfall than normal. However, there is significant volatility—during the 1997-1998 Super El Niño, Detroit experienced roughly 144% of normal snowfall due to well-timed moisture and cold air collisions. Factoring in this long-tail risk alongside the baseline expectation of milder temperatures and lower snow totals,
The median was slightly lowered to 72% to better align with the severe snow suppression expected across the lower Great Lakes region.
With 229 days remaining, Grand Rapids (GRR) has a slightly different risk profile than Chicago or Detroit due to its heavy reliance on mesoscale lake-effect snowfall. Strong El Niños typically mean less sustained arctic air, which shortens the optimal window for lake-effect generation. However, the warmer temperatures also keep the lakes unfrozen longer, meaning any sudden cold snaps could generate intense, localized snow. In the 2015-16 analog, GRR received about 80% of its normal snowfall. My
Forecast held stable, maintaining an 82% median to reflect Grand Rapids' unique susceptibility to localized lake-effect snow even in mild winters.
Time remaining: About 229 days until the resolution date (April 15, 2027). Current state: The primary driver for the 2026-27 winter is a 90%+ probability of a 'Super El Niño'. This typically results in a milder northern jet stream, warmer temperatures, and below-average snowfall for the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Cleveland's 15-year normal is roughly 47.8 inches. A low outcome (such as a p10 of 42.0% or p25 of 57.0%) would occur if the El Niño completely dominates, anchoring cold air in Canada
Forecast held steady, as the median of ~71% remains consistent with the broader regional expectation for a mild Super El Niño winter.
(a) Time left: 229 days until April 15, 2027. (b) Status quo: The highly likely Super El Niño dictates milder temperatures and typically below-normal snowfall for the Ohio Valley. (c) Base rates: Historical analog years for Columbus show significant variability, with totals ranging from 12.6" (2023-24) to 31.3" (1997-98), translating to roughly 46% to 115% of its 15-year normal (~27.2 inches). (d) Low outcome: An unbroken El Niño pattern results in precipitation falling predominantly as rain rat
The median was adjusted downward from 78% to 68% to properly align with neighboring Ohio Valley cities expecting significant snow suppression.
(a) Time left: 229 days remaining. (b) Status quo: The >90% chance of a Super El Niño heavily favors warmer and less snowy conditions, with severe snow suppression expected across the Ohio Valley. (c) Base rates: As the southernmost of the queried metros, Cincinnati is particularly susceptible to warming winter temperatures. Past recent analogs (2015-16, 2023-24) produced 14.8" to 19.2" of snow, representing roughly 64% to 83% of its 15-year normal (~23.0"). (d) Low outcome: The subtropical jet
Forecast slightly adjusted downward to a 62% median to match the severe snow suppression expected across the Ohio Valley.
(a) Time left: 229 days until resolution. (b) Status quo: The upcoming Super El Niño is the dominant climate signal for the Midwest, typically suppressing snowfall. (c) Base rates: Past very strong El Niño winters (e.g., 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16, 2023-24) have resulted in severe snowfall deficits for Milwaukee, often yielding roughly 16" to 30", which is about 34% to 64% of its 15-year normal (~46.8"). (d) Low outcome: The polar jet stream remains firmly entrenched in Canada, starving Wisconsin
Set against related questions, this distribution was slightly shifted upward to ensure regional consistency with neighboring Midwest cities .
With roughly 230 days until resolution, the 2026-2027 winter is projected to be dominated by a 'very strong' to 'Super' El Niño (>90% probability). For Indianapolis, historical analogs of Super El Niños (e.g., 2023-24, 2015-16, 1997-98) consistently show dramatic snowfall deficits, often dropping to 30-45% of normal due to a northward shift of the rain/snow line and a split-flow jet stream. However, 'fat-tail' upside risks exist if the active southern jet intersects with transient cold air outbr
Evaluating this forecast against broader expectations for an El Niño-driven snow drought across the Midwest and Ohio Valley slightly tightened the central percentiles while maintaining a prominent right tail for potential outlier storms.
There are 229 days left until resolution on 2027-04-15, and current realized snowfall is 0 because the season has not started. If nothing materially changes, the status quo for MSP is below-normal snowfall because the very strong El Nino pattern favors warmth across the northern tier and often leaves Minnesota on the dry side of the storm track cpc.ncep.noaa.govsevere-weather.euhaakwear.com. Looking at different scopes, the broad Upper Midwest signal is one of the clearest snow-drought risks in the research, while at
Set against related questions, this distribution held up because it was already consistent with the broader picture of snow drought in the northern tier.
Des Moines typically sees around 34-37 inches of snow over a 15-year normal. A Super El Niño usually shunts the active storm track farther south and keeps the ambient temperatures milder, leading to outcomes like the 2023-24 season (42% of normal). While there is some risk that a volatile polar vortex could bring intense, short-lived cold blasts that overlap with the subtropical moisture plume, the base rate heavily favors a significant snowfall drought. Set against related questions, this distr
Set against related questions, this distribution held up because it was already consistent with the regional expectation of an El Niño snow drought.
Omaha lies in the Central Plains and has a relatively low seasonal normal (26-27 inches). In Super El Niño setups, Omaha is frequently clipped by the northern edge of southern-track storms, resulting in slightly better historical performance than cities further north or east (e.g., 63% in 2023-24). Expert outlooks place Omaha slightly higher (75-95% of normal) than MSP or DSM. The primary downside risk is that storms bring precipitation but temperatures remain too mild for snow. Given the low th
Set against related questions, this distribution held up because it was already consistent with the regional picture in the Central Plains.
(a) There are about 229 days until the April 15, 2027 resolution date. (b) The status quo is the emergence of a highly probable (>90%) 'Super El Niño', which historically drastically reduces snowfall in the Northern Tier due to milder temperatures and a northward-displaced jet stream. (c) Viewed regionally, this ENSO pattern starves the area of both moisture and extreme cold needed for heavy, accumulating snow compared to typical winters. (d) A LOW outcome is very likely because 100% of the Very
Set against related questions, this distribution held up because it was already consistent with the broader northern tier forecast.
(a) There are approximately 229 days remaining until the resolution. (b) The dominant winter pattern is forecast to be a Very Strong El Niño, which sets the status quo for abnormal jet stream tracks. (c) On a macro level, Sioux Falls lies in an unpredictable transition zone during these ENSO states. (d) A LOW outcome could happen if the region misses the active southern storm track entirely, as seen in the 1997-98 (71%) and 2023-24 (35%) analogs. (e) A HIGH outcome is also distinctly possible, g
Set against related questions, this distribution was shifted downward to better align with the severe snow drought expected regionally , though a wide right tail was preserved.
(a) Roughly 229 days remain until the April 2027 resolution. (b) The current atmospheric status quo points toward a very strong El Niño for the upcoming winter. (c) Generally, this pattern brings more moisture to the Central Plains but significantly milder temperatures. (d) A LOW outcome is historically favored because precipitation often falls as rain or mixed ice instead of accumulating snow, as evidenced by three out of four Very Strong El Niño analogs showing 38-60% of normal. (e) A HIGH out
Set against related questions, this distribution held up because it was already consistent with the broader regional expectation of a mild winter.
(a) 229 days remain. (b) Super El Nino brings similar conditions to St. Louis as Kansas City, with warmer air limiting snowfall despite an active southern jet. (c) Historic analogs average ~78.5% of normal, generally staying well below average. (d) LOW outcome is driven by rain and ice rather than snow in the milder El Nino setup. (e) HIGH outcome relies on rare 'southern slider' storms pulling down just enough arctic air to dump massive snowfall (e.g., 1982). (f) Set against related questions,
Set against related questions, this distribution was slightly shifted downward to ensure consistency with neighboring cities in the Central Plains .
(a) Time left: 229 days until mid-April 2027. (b) Status quo is 100% of normal, but we are entering a Super El Niño. (c) Scope: Denver's local topography (Front Range) often defies broader regional trends during El Niño; the city historically benefits from the same El Niño storm tracks that suppress snow further northwest , frequently experiencing increased snowfall overall. (d) Low outcome reasoning: Warmer than normal temperatures could reduce snow-to-l
Set against related questions, this distribution was shifted slightly upward because Denver historically benefits from the same El Niño storm tracks that suppress snow further northwest .
Roughly 229 days remain until resolution. The developing Super El Niño typically brings a more active storm track to Utah, but also significantly higher baseline temperatures. For the SLC airport station, located in the valley (elevation ~4,226 ft), this often means precipitation falls as rain rather than snow, even as surrounding mountains get buried. A LOW outcome is very possible if consistent warming keeps the rain-snow line well above the airport floor for most of the season. A HIGH outcome
Set against related questions, this distribution was adjusted slightly downward, affirming the likelihood that El Niño warming will keep valley precipitation mostly as rain .
(a) 229 days remain until resolution. (b) The status quo would be 100%, but Boise's low seasonal normal (~17.6 inches) makes its percentage highly volatile. (c) Scope: Boise sits in a transition zone between the dry/warm Northwest and wet Southwest. (d) Low outcome reasoning: The 'warm and dry' Pacific Northwest El Niño pattern could dominate, leading to dismal totals like the 35% seen in 1997-98. Furthermore, aligning expectations with forecasts of warm, dry conditions in the broader Northwest
Set against related questions, this distribution was shifted slightly downward to align with forecasts of warm, dry conditions in the broader Northwest .
(a) There are 229 days left until the outcome is finalized. (b) The baseline is 100%, but historical El Niños heavily favor below-average snowfall for this region. (c) Scope: The broader Pacific Northwest typically experiences ridging and warm/dry conditions during El Niños. (d) Low outcome reasoning: A Super El Niño almost guarantees above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation for the inland NW, sharply reducing snowfall (Spokane averages 72% in all El Niños). (e) High outcome re
Set against related questions, this distribution was pulled slightly lower to align with the historical tendency for El Niños to suppress snowfall across the region .
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