These are AI safety/risk forecasting…

Will an AI trading or algorithmic system be identified as the primary cause of a major financial markets crash or flash crash between August 24, 2026 and August 24, 2027?✓#1

probability: 5%

rationale:

Core Constraints and Baseline

The resolution criteria effectively split this forecast into two conditions: a major index or systemically important crypto asset experiencing a single-day decline of at least 5%, and a credible authority or tier-1 financial media outlet identifying an AI system as the primary cause. The first condition is highly likely to be met, as crypto assets and occasionally major equity indices routinely experience 5% single-day drawdowns. The true bottleneck is the seco

Set against related questions, this was slightly adjusted from 6% to 5% to better align its specific risk with the broader 12% probability of any major AI-caused disaster .

Weighed against 2 other forecasts.

mindfulmarkets.aispokesman.comthearmchairtrader.comitbrew.comtelegraph.co.uk+375 more

Will a widespread IT outage whose root cause is attributed to an AI system (rather than a conventional software bug or ordinary human error) disrupt critical services across multiple countries or organizations between August 24, 2026 and August 24, 2027?✓#2

probability: 6%

rationale:

The probability of this event is heavily constrained by a demanding double hurdle: a multi-country disruption on the massive scale of the July 2024 CrowdStrike outage, coupled with clear, credible root-cause attribution specifically to an AI system. Mega-outages of this magnitude are historically rare, occurring perhaps once every one to two years, and none in 2026 to date have been attributed to AI 2 sources. Recent massive disruptions, such as Cloudflare’s February 2026 outage and Micro

Set against related questions, this was maintained at 6% because its estimate of a global tech failure aligns perfectly with its proportional contribution to the broader catch-all AI disaster .

Weighed against 2 other forecasts.

coalitionforsecureai.orgmedia.defense.govcryptobriefing.comhealth.aws.amazon.commedium.com+411 more

Will any single incident be widely reported and characterized by major media or governments as a 'major AI-caused disaster' — causing at least $1 billion in estimated economic damages, or substantially disrupting critical infrastructure, financial markets, healthcare, or public safety across multiple countries — between August 24, 2026 and August 24, 2027?✓#3

probability: 12%

rationale:

The Crux of the Estimate The 12% probability of a major AI-caused disaster over the next 12 months reflects the tension between the rapidly expanding deployment of agentic AI in high-stakes environments and the stringent thresholds for scale and attribution. While the baseline frequency of >$1 billion tech-driven disasters is low, the integration of AI into operational technology, cloud infrastructure, and financial trading creates plausible new risk vectors. However, the requirement that an

Set against related questions, this was maintained at 12% as it coherently aggregates the underlying risks of a global IT outage and the qualifying portion of a financial flash crash .

Weighed against 2 other forecasts.

bofbulletin.fiintellectia.aieureflect.comsimmons-simmons.comfortunebusinessinsights.com+471 more

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