Natural gas currently dominates the behind-the-meter (BTM) data centre pipeline, and gas turbines are positioned to capture nearly half of all installed capacity by 2030. Analysts track between 90 and 130 GW of announced onsite generation for data centres globally 44 sources, with gas accounting for upwards of 75% to 80% of identified equipment 2 sources. However, most of this pipeline is speculative. Only about 22 to 32 GW of total BTM capacity is realistically expe
Set against related questions on modular alternatives, this distribution was slightly narrowed to align with the expectation that engines and fuel cells will capture a specific share of the delayed turbine pipeline.
Natural gas reciprocating engines are positioned to capture a median 22.5% of the global behind-the-meter (BTM) data centre generation market by 2030, emerging as the largest single modular category. Industry splits consistently anchor this share in the low-to-mid 20s. Enverus projects 7.1 GW of reciprocating engines out of 31.6 GW of US BTM capacity through 2030, yielding a 22% share enverus.com. Similarly, Global Energy Monitor tracks about 45 GW of engine capacity in development tied to data cen
Set against related questions, the distribution was tightened slightly to maintain a coherent market share balance with gas turbines and fuel cells.
Fuel cells, predominantly Bloom Energy's solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs), are positioned to capture a material but minority share of the behind-the-meter (BTM) data centre generation market, with a median estimate of 14.5%. This baseline is heavily anchored by current market tracking: Enverus forecasts 4.8 GW of fuel cells out of 31.6 GW of US BTM capacity through 2030 (approximately 15%) enverus.com, and Bloom currently holds about 14% of Cleanview-tracked BTM projects cleanview.co. The core ad
Set against related questions, this estimate was marginally adjusted to ensure the combined share of modular alternatives perfectly complements the natural gas turbine pipeline.
Natural gas will overwhelmingly dominate behind-the-meter (BTM) generation for data centres by 2030, strongly capping the share of onsite solar PV and battery storage. Cleanview indicates that virtually none of the BTM developers it tracks are planning near-term renewables, with approximately 75% of identified equipment being gas distilled.earth. Similarly, Enverus projects that gas will account for 29.6 GW out of 31.6 GW of US BTM capacity by 2030, leaving a residual of only about 6% to be divided amo
Evaluated alongside competing generation sources, this forecast was adjusted slightly to balance the structural dominance of fossil-gas alternatives against the potential inclusion of massive battery storage sites.
Next-generation nuclear technologies, including small modular reactors (SMRs) and microreactors, are widely expected to reach commercial maturity only after 2030, severely limiting their contribution to behind-the-meter (BTM) data centre capacity in this decade. The International Energy Agency expects SMRs to enter the data centre supply mix post-2030 iea.org, while the US Department of Energy points to widespread commercial reactors arriving in the 2030s energy.gov. Similarly, S&P and Ra
Set against related BTM generation questions, this forecast was marginally trimmed in the upper tail to reflect that broad classification rules are more likely to boost battery storage or gas than nuclear.
The "other" category—encompassing diesel/HFO prime power, hydro, geothermal, wind, hydrogen, and biogas—will remain a small residual slice of the behind-the-meter (BTM) market, with a median estimate of 4.5%. Evaluated alongside other generation technologies, the distribution reflects the structural limits placed on alternative sources by the dominance of natural gas, with a 25th–75th percentile range of 3.0%–7.0% and a 10th–90th percentile range of 2.0%–10.0%. The current pipeline is heavily co
Evaluated alongside other generation technologies, this distribution was adjusted slightly to account for the structural limits placed on alternative sources by the dominance of natural gas.
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