Baseline and Market Context The relevant settlement date for this forecast is Friday, October 23, 2026, the closest trading day to the target date. Currently, the front-month/continuous HG copper contract is anchored around $6.71 per pound, reflecting a market balancing robust physical constraints against macroeconomic headwinds. Because there is no strong directional edge over a one-month horizon, the median forecast remains tethered to current spot and futures levels. However, recent weeks
Set against a related 3-month forecast , this estimate was held stable because its tighter distribution correctly reflects the shorter time horizon for binary policy risks to play out.
The forecast anchors the median at $6.747/lb, directly in line with current front-month pricing. As of late September 2026, the actively quoted December COMEX HG contract (HGZ6) trades near $6.75–$6.77/lb, with a September 23 settlement of $6.7535 2 sources. The distribution applies roughly 13–14% three-month implied volatility, balancing the structural tightness in global copper supply against mounting macroeconomic headwinds.
The widest tail risks are driven by the pending US tariff de
Set against a related 1-month forecast , this estimate was held stable because its wider distribution appropriately reflects the accumulation of policy and macroeconomic risks over a longer 3-month horizon.
Ask a followup
Sign in to run · $20 free credit, no card · every claim cited