The 2030 resolution is roughly 4.3 years away. Currently, the tech industry is experiencing rebalancing with layoffs, a freeze on junior hiring, and the rapid adoption of AI coding assistants like Copilot and Cursor, which cool the previously explosive growth of software engineers. The status quo is a stagnant or slow-growing workforce relative to the 2022-2023 peaks. A LOW outcome (e.g., -11.5%) would occur if AI severely undercuts the need for junior developers and macroeconomic conditions fav
Aligning this estimate with expectations for near-term AI capabilities and longer-horizon labor projections slightly tightened the uncertainty distribution around a slow-growth median.
The 2035 resolution is about 9.3 years away. Over a 10-year horizon, cumulative AI capability improvements could drastically alter the software profession. Evaluating the compounding effects of long-term AI capabilities on both labor displacement and induced software demand yields a median expectation of 2.0%. The official BLS baseline projects around +10% growth by 2035 (informing a P75 of 13.0%), but prediction markets are highly bearish, estimating up to a 12% decline (informing a P25 of -10.
Evaluating the compounding effects of long-term AI capabilities on both labor displacement and induced software demand shifted the median expectation slightly upward while maintaining a wide distribution to capture extreme scenarios.
(a) Final estimate: 10th percentile at -7.5%, 25th percentile at -2.5%, median at 1.5%, 75th percentile at 6.0%, and 90th percentile at 10.5%. (b) Initial logic and parameters regarding the timeline and growth trends are validated. (c) Standard processing applied to occupational insulation logic. (d) A low outcome (-7.5% to -2.5%) occurs if AI tools successfully automate enough routine auditing and bookkeeping. (e) A high outcome (+6.0% to +10.5%) occurs if complex new regulations force firms to
Set against related questions, slight adjustments were made to ensure the distribution properly scales against the 2035 outlook and the parallel forecast for lawyers.
About 3402 days (~9.3 years) remain. Status quo: the May 2025 baseline is about 1,595,200 Accountants & Auditors, and if today’s BLS trajectory held unchanged the 2035 result would be about +5.0% bls.govbls.govbls.gov. Across scopes, the broad finance back-office will likely automate faster than this narrower licensed/compliance-heavy occupation, but by 2035 the cumulative AI effect should bite more than by 2030, so I put the median around flat (0.0%) relative to 2025 rather than clearly posi
Set against related questions, the percentiles were marginally adjusted to ensure the 2035 downside risks scale consistently with the 2030 baseline.
The 2030 forecast (a 5-year horizon from the 2025 baseline) balances the historical stability of the legal profession against the accelerating adoption of generative AI. (a) With about 4 years left until 2030 data is finalized, the timeline is short enough that massive structural collapse is unlikely due to regulatory moats and existing firm structures. (b) The BLS baseline is 863,700, with an implied ~2.3% growth by 2030 based on their 10-year projection. (c) While AI is automating routine task
Set against related questions, minor adjustments were made to keep the 2030 bounds proportional to the 2035 forecasts for the same occupation.
For the 2035 horizon, uncertainty grows significantly due to the conflicting forces of technological displacement and the Jevons paradox. The official BLS projection targets a 4.7% (or ~5%) growth from 2025 to 2035, serving as our fundamental anchor. In contrast, predictive markets forecast steep declines (e.g., -12.3%) as law firms potentially abandon the traditional associate-heavy 'pyramid' model in favor of lean, AI-enabled teams. A strong bear case envisions structural deflation in headcoun
Set against related questions, the distribution was slightly widened to properly align the 2035 compounding downside risks with the nearer-term 2030 outlook.
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