The projected commercial aircraft movements at Francisco Sá Carneiro Airport (OPO) in 2035 are estimated at a median of 141,000. The 80% confidence interval ranges from 117,000 at the 10th percentile to 166,000 at the 90th percentile, with the 25th and 75th percentiles at 129,000 and 153,000, respectively. These projections establish a baseline of approximately 116,000 movements in 2026 and assume an annualized long-term growth rate of roughly 2.2% through the decade.
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Set against a related question forecasting 2045 traffic, the median and upper percentiles were adjusted slightly downward to better align with the long-term limits of single-runway capacity and structural fleet upgauging.
Baseline and Near-Term Momentum The starting point is the 2025 record of 109,620 commercial movements (+5.4% YoY) and 16.9 million passengers 3 sources. Strong momentum has carried into 2026, with H1 commercial movements up 5.3% globenewswire.com and July up 6.4% anac.pt. Assuming growth moderates slightly in the second half of the year, 2026 is on track to finish around 114,000–116,000 movements. From this base, the median estimate of 153,000 movements in 2045 implies a compound annu
Set against a related question forecasting 2035 traffic, the median and upper bounds were shifted slightly upward to maintain a logical trajectory of continued, albeit slower, growth in the decade following 2035.
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