Общий вопрос пользователя: заменит ли Rust…

Will Google report, in an official Android security/blog publication, that more than 50% of new native (memory-unsafe-language-eligible) code added to the Android OS codebase in a given calendar year is written in Rust, for any calendar year up to and including 2028?✓#1

probability: 52%

rationale:

Underlying Adoption Trends

The final estimated probability is 52%. Initial logic and parameters regarding Rust's technical trajectory in Android are validated as established context. Standard processing applied to official reports on net additions for first-party platform development security.googleblog.com. The expansion of Rust into areas like baseband firmware is acknowledged security.googleblog.com.

Strict Resolution Requirements

Standard processing applied. The criteria demanding gross

Set against related questions, this was adjusted slightly downward to 52% to reflect the strong structural barriers to meeting the strict gross lines-of-code metric, even in a world of steady Rust adoption.

Weighed against 4 other forecasts.

securitycryptographywhatever.comaquilax.aidarkreading.comsupernetworks.orgdiscuss.grapheneos.org+119 more

Will more than 10% of patches/commits merged into the Linux mainline kernel's device driver subsystems (directories under drivers/) during calendar year 2029 be written in Rust rather than C, according to kernel development statistics (e.g. Linux Foundation reports, LWN.net kernel development statistics, or kernelnewbies.org release stats)?✓#2

probability: 5%

rationale:

Status Quo and Institutional Momentum Rust officially graduated from its experimental phase in late 2025, becoming a core kernel language alongside C and assembly 3 sources. Institutional momentum is genuinely strong, with production drivers like Android Binder landing alongside heavy investments in the Nova (NVIDIA) and Tyr (Arm Mali) GPU drivers 3 sources. Furthermore, the DRM graphics subsystem has been moving toward a policy of disallowing new C drivers in f

Set against related questions, this was raised slightly to 5% to account for rapid adoption policies in specific subsystems, though the overall legacy codebase remains a massive hurdle.

Weighed against 4 other forecasts.

grandlinux.cominfoq.comdebugpoint.comlwn.netwebiano.digital+152 more

Will a major Linux distribution (Ubuntu, Fedora, Debian, or RHEL/CentOS Stream) ship Rust-based replacements for core system utilities (such as coreutils via uutils, or sudo via sudo-rs) as the DEFAULT installed versions in a stable, non-experimental release by December 31, 2028?✓#3

probability: 99%

rationale:

Status: Effectively Resolved YES

This question has already essentially resolved YES based on events that occurred prior to today (2026-09-06). The resolution criteria require only one of the listed major distributions to ship a Rust reimplementation of either coreutils or sudo as the default package in a stable release by the end of 2028. Ubuntu has successfully met this requirement through its adoption of sudo-rs.

Ubuntu's Adoption of sudo-rs Ubuntu transitioned to sudo-rs as th

Maintained at 99%, as the resolution criteria have already effectively been met in production by Ubuntu's adoption of sudo-rs.

Weighed against 4 other forecasts.

peculiarengineer.comtrisquel.infofedoraproject.orgrpms.remirepo.netnews.ycombinator.com+88 more

Will Microsoft publicly confirm, in official documentation, blog posts, or conference talks, that a production-shipped Windows component providing kernel-mode or privileged system-level functionality (not merely an isolated driver) is written primarily (majority of its code) in Rust, in a stable (non-preview) Windows release available by January 31, 2030?✓#4

probability: 88%

rationale:

Current Status Quo

Microsoft has already shipped kernel-mode Rust code in a stable Windows release. Official documentation for Windows 11 version 24H2 and LTSC 2024 includes a section titled "Rust in the Windows kernel" and explicitly identifies a new implementation of the GDI region in win32kbase_rs.sys 4learn.microsoft.com. This is a Microsoft-authored, kernel-mode binary implementing a historically vulnerable attack surface in safe Rust msrc.microsoft.com, strongly suggesting the lit

Maintained at 88%, as the already-shipped Windows kernel components provide a strong baseline, consistent with the broader shift toward memory-safe systems programming.

Weighed against 4 other forecasts.

microsoft.comferrous-systems.comx.comwesturner.github.iothenewstack.io+168 more

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