With the final results expected in late August 2026, we have a relatively short timeframe and strong preliminary signals. An analyst report from June 2026 already cited a preliminary figure of 5.2 for Paraná's state high school network, based on data released to schools in April. Because this leak is based on actual preliminary Saeb 2025 results, it likely already accounts for the potential increased difficulty of the new BNCC-aligned matrix. I am centering my forecast strongly around this 5.2 f

Update July 26, 2026: Set against related questions, this forecast was nudged slightly upward to better account for the overwhelming impact of the state's high approval rate compared to regional peers.

Espírito Santo achieved a 4.8 in 2023. The most significant driver for the 2025 cycle is the reported 98.8% approval rate in the Censo Escolar, which creates a near-perfect flow multiplier. Even if proficiency scores face downward pressure from the new Saeb format, the high approval rate provides

Update July 26, 2026: The distribution remains largely consistent, anchored by the state's historical leadership and shared regional trends in flow rate improvements.

Goiás has shown consistent performance in the top tier of the national ranking (4.8 in 2023). State reports indicate a 44% reduction in dropout rates, strongly boosting the flow component of the Ideb. Preliminary data from specific schools also suggests upward momentum (schools jumping into the 5.3-5.7 range). The state's bonus st

São Paulo achieved a 4.5 in 2023. Analysts express skepticism about SP's 2025 performance due to high teacher turnover and restructuring policies. Some local tests (Saresp) show lingering gaps in Portuguese proficiency, though Math has seen some recovery. A low outcome could pull the state down to 4.2 or 4.3 if the new exam structure proves too challenging for the network. A high outcome (4.8 to 4.9) would require the 'Provão Paulista' and digital testing initiatives to have successfully boosted

Update July 26, 2026: Avaliada em conjunto com outras unidades da federação, a projeção foi mantida estável porque o patamar já alcançado pelo estado reflete um crescimento estrutural consistente.

Provavelmente saberemos o resultado em cerca de 1 mês, quando o Saeb final começar a sair em 28 de agosto de 2026; o prazo formal de resolução vai até 31/12/2026, e os preliminares já foram vistos pelas redes em abril 3 sources. O status quo é 4,5 em 2023; se nada de importante mudasse,

Update July 26, 2026: Evaluated alongside regional peers, this forecast was slightly raised and widened to reflect Piauí's uniquely aggressive financial incentives and maximized flow rate metrics.

(a) Time left: ~1 month (August 2026 release). (b) Status quo: Piauí scored 4.5 in 2023. (c) Scope: High school state network. (d) Low case: A 'flow trap' where high pass rates mask a lack of learning progress. A rapid expansion of full-time schooling can also temporarily dilute quality. (e) High case

Update July 26, 2026: The median was slightly refined to ensure consistency with the broader region's optimistic modeling of high pass rates .

(a) Time left: ~1 month to official results. (b) Status quo: Pará leaped to 4.4 in 2023. (c) Scope: High school state network. (d) Low case: The massive 1.2-point jump in 2023 introduces high risk of regression to the mean or plateauing, particularly if artificial flow increases cannot be replicated. (e) High case

(a) Time left: ~1 month (August 2026). (b) Status quo: Ceará scored 4.3 in 2023. (c) Scope: High school state network. (d) Low case: Expanding the 'Sobral model' to high school faces diminishing returns and greater complexity; proficiency may stall. (e) High case: Abandonment halved to 1.5%, pass rates up to 99%, and excellent integration of the federal Pé-de-Meia program to boost student engagement. Experts project around 4.6. (f) Uncertainty: Modest and steady growth is historically Ceará's ha

Update July 26, 2026: Set against related questions, this estimate was held largely stable, maintaining consistency with regional forecasts that balance strong flow improvements against potential proficiency headwinds.

Minas Gerais apresentou um aumento significativo no fluxo escolar para 2025 (queda da reprovação e abandono) e reportou os melhores resultados da história em Língua Portuguesa nas avaliações preliminares. O Ideb (produto do fluxo pela proficiência) deve subir consideravelmente em

Update July 26, 2026: The distribution was kept largely the same, slightly tightening to reflect consistent regional expectations of modest flow-driven growth .

Rondônia, assim como os demais estados, se beneficia da redução da evasão escolar no ciclo 2025 graças ao programa Pé-de-Meia. Tendo chegado a 4,2 em 2023 (crescimento forte frente a 2021), a tendência é de alta pelo efeito do fluxo escolar, apesar de alertas sobre deficiências persistentes na ap

Update July 26, 2026: The forecast was kept largely consistent, with minor adjustments to align the distribution with regional expectations for high school flow improvements .

O Tocantins teve uma queda drástica nas taxas de abandono (de 3,8% para 1,1%) e reprovação, elevando o fluxo para quase 96%. Com forte investimento estatal e metas claras de liderar a região Norte, espera-se que essa matemática do fluxo jogue a nota para cima, tornando viável o alc

(a) Faltam 158 dias; a divulgação oficial deve começar em 28/08/2026 gov.br. (b) O status quo é 4,2 em 2023, e SC ficou praticamente estável na série 2019-2023, então a âncora inicial é 4,2 2 sources. (c) Em escopo amplo, vejo SC entre a tendência nacional de melhora do fluxo e o histórico estadual mais morno, o que aponta mais para alta incremental do que salto extremo 2 sources. (d) O lado baixo é a recuperação de aprendizagem seguir lenta e parte do ganho de fluxo não se conve

For Rio Grande do Sul, there are two opposing forces at play. On one hand, a new flexible progression rule reduced the high school failure rate significantly from 11.1% in 2024 to 5.8% in 2025, which provides a strong, mathematically guaranteed boost to the 'Flow' component of the Ideb. On the other hand, the devastating floods in 2024 severely impacted the school infrastructure and likely caused significant learning loss, which should depress the 'Proficiency' component. Combining these factors

Update July 26, 2026: Set against related questions, the median and upper bounds were nudged upward to reflect a more consistent regional weighting of positive structural investments alongside the acknowledged flow rate uncertainties.

For the Distrito Federal, the research reveals contradictory information regarding the 2025 flow indicators. One source reports a concerning rise in failure rates to 13.7%, while another highlights a 62% reduction in failure rates compared to 2022. Because the Ide

Update July 26, 2026: When compared to regional peers, this forecast was kept stable as the state's excellent flow metrics and consistent historical growth heavily support a solid increase.

Alagoas has demonstrated the most consistent historical growth among the analyzed states (+0.30 points per cycle on average). With failure rates plummeting to 2.7% and abandonment to 1.4%, its nearly perfect flow metric will heavily leverage the state's Ideb. The expansion of full-time education (EMI) and ro

Paraíba is projected to experience one of the largest mathematical leaps due to an unprecedented jump in its approval rate from 83.2% to 93.1% in 2025. This relative flow increase of nearly 12% means that even if learning (Saeb) remains completely flat, the Ideb would mechanically rise from 4.0 to nearly 4.5. Given the state's significant investments in full-time education, there is high confidence in a score substantially higher than the 2023 baseline.

Update July 26, 2026: Set against related regional forecasts, the median was slightly raised to account for the consistent mechanical boost provided by recent federal retention programs .

(a) Time left: ~158 days until the resolution date, with official Ideb results expected around late August 2026. (b) Status quo: Acre's 2023 Ideb was 4.0. Without any major changes, it would likely stay around this level. (c) Scope: Assessing both the traditionally slow

(a) Time left: ~158 days until the outcome is known. (b) Status quo: Sergipe's 2023 Ideb was 4.0, serving as the baseline. (c) Scope: Considering historical volatility (such as the artificial jump in 2021) and current systemic improvements in approval rates. (d) Low outcome: A drop to 3.8-3.9 might occur if Saeb test scores demonstrate a "proficiency drag" where students are passing but not demonstrating adequate learning in math and Portuguese. (e) High outcome: Reaching ~95% approval in 2025 c

Update July 26, 2026: Set against related regional questions, the lower bound was slightly expanded to account for the shared risk of stricter evaluation matrices and flow corrections.

a) Time left: ~1 month to outcome. b) Status quo: MS scored 4.0 in 2023, though it experienced some regression in the actual learning indicator. c) Scope/Context: The state has aggressively expanded full-time education (over 200 units by 2024) and offers top-tier teacher salaries, setting up strong structural adv

Update July 26, 2026: Evaluated alongside regional peers, the distribution was slightly adjusted downward at the lower tail to reflect shared risks of administrative corrections to flow rates.

(a) Time left: ~158 days to resolution. (b) Status quo: While the background prompt mentions the 2023 value wasn't confirmed in primary sources, research strongly indicates MT achieved 4.1 or 4.2 in 2023, representing a massive jump from earlier cycles. (c) Scope: Analyzing whether MT can maintain its ano

Update July 26, 2026: Weighed against related questions, the distribution was slightly tightened, maintaining the expectation of modest growth driven by retention policies despite potential downside disruptions.

The time left until resolution is around 158 days, but the event (Saeb test) has already taken place in late 2025 and preliminary results are circulating. Bahia had a 2023 baseline of 3.9, which followed a strong growth trajectory from previous cycles. The expansion of full-time educati

Update July 26, 2026: When evaluated alongside other states, this forecast was slightly adjusted to reflect Maranhão's limited room for flow-driven mechanical growth.

Maranhão achieved an Ideb of 3.8 in 2023. Notably, reports suggest Maranhão has a very high school flow rate (around 97% approval), meaning that further Ideb increases depend heavily on improved Saeb proficiency rather than reduced dropout. With labor unrest among teachers possibly suppressing proficiency gains, growth might be mo

Amazonas (2023 Ideb of 3.8) has shown strong learning momentum. While it also faces the ceiling effect on school flow (high approval rate), preliminary reports from municipalities like Manaus are highly optimistic. The state has focused intensely on learning recovery, making a 0.2 jump very plausible. Teacher burnout and strikes form the primary downside risks.

Update July 26, 2026: Set against related questions, the distribution was kept mostly intact, firmly anchoring on the mathematical lift from improved pass rates .

Amapá's baseline is 3.8. Unlike Maranhão and Amazonas, Amapá had high dropout and failure rates historically, giving it tremendous room to improve its 'fluxo' multiplier. Research indicates that between 2022 and 2025, failure rates dropped from 12.5% to 5.1% and dropout from 7.2% to 4.8%. This

Update July 26, 2026: Set against related questions on educational outcomes, the distribution was slightly narrowed to reflect the strong structural certainty provided by the state's drastic increase in student pass rates.

A) Time remaining: Approximately 1 month until the official Inep release in late August 2026. B) Status quo: While the overall state Ideb for RN was 3.7 in 2023, the state network specifically scored 3.2. C) Scope: We are forecasting the state network (rede estadual) only.

Update July 26, 2026: Set against related questions, this forecast was slightly adjusted upward to reflect the strong regional impact of relaxed progression policies on the flow multiplier.

A) Time remaining: Around 1 month until the Saeb/Ideb 2025 results are officially published. B) Status quo: The state network in RJ dropped from 3.9 (2021) to 3.3 (2023) after pandemic-era automatic approval policies ended. C) Scope: Forecasting strictly the 'rede estadual', which usually trails the total st

Update July 26, 2026: The median was nudged slightly to align with the regional pattern of flow-driven mathematical score increases .

A) Time remaining: About 1 month left before resolution in late August 2026. B) Status quo: Roraima held the lowest overall score in the country in 2023 (3.5), with its state network hovering around 3.5 to 3.6. C) Scope: Estimating the 2025 state network cycle. D) Bear case: Roraima historically struggles heavily with Saeb