Question

What will Gemini 3.5 Pro's standard API INPUT price be, in USD per 1,000,000 tokens at the ≤200k-context tier, at public release?

✓#1

price_usd_per_mtok4.33USD per 1,000,000 tokens (standard tier, ≤200k context)

p10
2
p25
2.75
p50
4.333
p75
7.5
p90
13.5

rationale:

Gemini 3.5 Pro, announced at Google I/O 2026, is expected to reach General Availability in June or July 2026 3 sources. The fundamental tension in pricing this model is the conflict between Google's established price-performance leadership and the upward pressure caused by its own new Flash tier.

Currently, Gemini 3.1 Pro sits at $2.00 per 1M input tokens (≤200k context) 44 sources. However, Gemini 3.5 Flash recently launched at $1.50 per 1M input tokens—a 3x jump from the previous Flash generation [the-decoder, llm-stats, de54c9]. Holding 3.5 Pro flat at $2.00 would severely compress the tiers, making a modest price increase highly probable to maintain product separation.

Conversely, Google heavily markets Gemini as significantly cheaper than comparable frontier models blog.google. GPT-5.4 currently charges $12 for input, and Claude Opus sits around $15. To maintain its undercutting strategy, Google is incentivized to keep its marketing-visible input prices relatively low. This is particularly relevant given the integration of 'Deep Think' reasoning; because reasoning effort is billed as flat-rate output tokens, Google can capture significant revenue on the backend without drastically raising the sticker price of input tokens. A WaveSpeed assessment similarly floats a modest ~$2.50 input price for a premium reasoning tier wavespeed.ai.

The probability distribution reflects these opposing forces:

Lower Bound (p10 at $2.00): Anchored to the status quo. Google has historically held Pro input prices flat across generations ai.google.dev, and extreme price stickiness remains plausible if they prioritize aggressive market share acquisition.
Center (p25–p50 at ~$2.75–$4.33): The base case assumes a moderate generational uplift. A ~$4.33 median creates the necessary separation from the $1.50 Flash tier while still undercutting GPT-5.4 by more than 60%, perfectly aligning with Google's historical positioning.
Right Tail (p75–p90 up to $13.50): Accommodates a specific secondary-source rumor floating a ~$15 input / $60 output price aiweekly.co. While matching Opus pricing would mean abandoning Google's explicit price-undercutting strategy, it cannot be completely discounted given the compute requirements of a 2M-context window and Deep Think integration. The upper percentiles also account for the possibility of Google maintaining historical Pro-to-Flash pricing ratios (~4x), which would imply an input price of roughly $6.00 to $7.00.