Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026? [Subquestion: Oklo]

probability: 32%

rationale:

The baseline probability of Oklo's flagship Aurora-INL reactor achieving criticality by August 1, 2026, is functionally zero (approximately 2–3%). Ground was broken on the facility in September 2025, and while it received Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis (PDSA) approval—the third of four DOE steps—on June 11, 2026 lasvegassun.comans.org, it still lacks a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA). Furthermore, its fuel fabrication facility remains under construction lasvegassun.com, and operational targets are firmly set for late 2027 to early 2028 powermag.com.

Instead, the 32% probability is driven almost entirely by resolution ambiguity surrounding Oklo’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Atomic Alchemy. Atomic Alchemy operates the Groves isotopes test reactor, which is actively targeting July 4, 2026, for criticality neimagazine.com. However, Groves' authorization review was still in progress as of mid-May powermag.com, and it lacked a DSA in recent tracking nuclearinnovationalliance.org, putting its actual chances of achieving the August deadline at roughly 50–55%.

Crucially, there are explicitly separate market outcomes for 'Oklo' and 'Atomic Alchemy.' This deliberate separation strongly suggests a strict interpretation where 'Oklo' maps only to the Aurora reactor (which will fail the deadline) and 'Atomic Alchemy' maps to the Groves reactor. Nevertheless, there is genuine resolution risk: if Groves achieves criticality, Oklo's official channels, CEO, and SEC filings—all of which are named resolution sources—will likely report the achievement. A literalist interpretation of these sources could easily trigger a YES resolution for the Oklo outcome as well.

Decomposing the scenario gives approximately a 52–55% chance that Groves successfully achieves criticality by the deadline, combined with roughly a 55% chance that the resolver ultimately credits a Groves success to the 'Oklo' outcome despite the parent/subsidiary market separation. Adding the negligible ~3% chance of a miracle acceleration for Aurora yields an overarching probability of 32%.