Jun 2026 temperature increase?

rationale:

This market resolves based on the preliminary June 2026 global Land and Ocean temperature anomaly (compared to the 1901-2000 average) published in NOAA's Climate at a Glance database ncei.noaa.gov. It is critical to note that these bins map to NOAA's specific baseline, not the higher values typically reported by NASA GISS.

The central estimate is grounded in recent 2026 anomaly data and emerging climatological drivers. After a notably warm start to the year, there was a clear downtrend into the spring, with the anomaly moving from a March peak of 1.22°C down to 1.14°C in April and 1.07°C in May ncei.noaa.gov ncei.noaa.gov.

Because May was the lowest of the year's first five months (which averaged 1.14°C), upward mean reversion is expected. Additionally, a weak-to-moderate El Niño has emerged and is projected to strengthen into the winter cpc.ncep.noaa.gov [IRI]. While the global temperature response to El Niño generally lags by several months, it still exerts a modest upward pressure on June's anomaly. Real-time observations support this warming trend: as of June 25, satellite reanalysis data captures the vast majority of the month, highlighting strong warming indicators such as a late-June European heatwave climate.copernicus.eu [WMO] and record-low Antarctic sea ice.

Consequently, the anomaly is projected to center near 1.11°C to 1.12°C, with probabilities distributed as follows:

• 1.10 to 1.16 (39%): This is the modal outcome. The combination of late-month observability, upward mean reversion from May, and emerging El Niño tailwinds strongly points toward a modest temperature bounce back.
• 1.03 to 1.09 (33%): Persistence from May's 1.07°C provides a strong anchor. A stabilization in this range remains highly viable, making it nearly a coin flip relative to the modal bin.
• 1.02999 or below (11%): Meaningful downside probability is maintained. Month-to-month noise can run around ±0.07°C, and there is recent precedent for sharp May-to-June declines (e.g., a -0.11°C drop in 2025) ncei.noaa.gov.
• 1.17 to 1.23 (12%) and 1.24 or above (5%): A faster-than-expected El Niño warming signal could push temperatures into these upper bins. However, upper-tail probabilities remain strictly contained because June is simply too early for the full El Niño response to materialize. Reaching 1.24°C or above would require an extreme month-over-month jump of +0.17°C, which is highly unlikely.