When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? [Subquestion: Before Jul 1, 2026]

probability: 5%

rationale:

The resolution of this market depends on the IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average of transit calls exceeding 60 before July 1, 2026. This requires a sharp, sustained acceleration in traffic—amounting to more than 420 transits over a single 7-day window—with only 11 days remaining until the deadline.

Recent IMF PortWatch data underscores the magnitude of the hurdle. The 7-day moving average was just 2.57 as of June 14 en.macromicro.me, representing a greater than 95% collapse from pre-war norms. While there has been a positive shift following a U.S.-Iran interim deal framework, with approximately 25 commercial vessels crossing on June 18 cnn.com including several Saudi-flagged supertankers reuters.com, this volume remains far below the necessary pace.

Evidence suggests the recovery will be heavily rate-limited by logistical and security constraints rather than an immediate return to normal. Expert estimates project traffic to reach only roughly 40-50 ships per day within 30 days cnbc.com. Clearing the approximate 500-ship backlog is expected to take around a month, with a return to pre-war levels taking roughly 8 weeks nypost.com. Industry experts caution that mine clearance could require 40-50 days to complete safely reuters.com, and the sudden cancellation of U.S.-Iran talks on June 19 reuters.com introduces added political fragility.

For the 7-day moving average to exceed 60 by July 1, daily transits would need to surge to 70-100+ almost immediately and sustain that level. While an unexpected rush of backlogged ships, a rapid normalization of AIS broadcasting, or minor data reporting anomalies keep the possibility above zero, the sheer mechanical difficulty of raising a lagging 7-day average from single digits to over 60 in under two weeks makes this highly improbable.