When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

rationale:

The 60-call threshold for the IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average (7DMA) represents approximately 55–65% of the Strait's pre-disruption baseline of ~94-103 daily transits randforecastinginitiative.orgservices9.arcgis.com. As of mid-June 2026, the 7DMA sits at a highly depressed 2.57 en.macromicro.meen.macromicro.me. Because the metric is a 7-day trailing average, resolution requires a sustained operational rebound, not just a brief release of backlog.

For the near-term deadlines (July 1 at 6%, July 15 at 19%), the primary upside catalyst is the June 17-18 US-Iran MOU euronews.com, which establishes an aggressive 30-day demining timeline and immediate traffic resumption npr.orgreuters.com. Early indicators are positive, with an immediate jump to 25 verified commercial crossings on June 18 reuters.com. However, mechanical and operational drag will suppress the near-term average. Kpler projections estimate that traffic will likely reach only ~45–55 calls within the first 30 days cnbc.com, keeping the 7DMA below the critical 60 mark through mid-July.

The most credible window for resolution is late summer into early fall (August 1 at 39%, rising to October 1 at 66%). This aligns directly with maritime-security assessments that comprehensive mine-clearance and confidence-building will require 40–50 days reuters.comreuters.com. While physical routes may be partially viable now, widespread insurer caution remains a binding constraint; major shipping companies and oil majors will not scale up to 60+ transits per day until clearance operations are fully verified and war-risk premiums soften.

The long-term probability curve gradually plateaus, capping at 80% by January 1, 2027. This reflects a ~20% residual tail risk of non-resolution. Downside risks include the fragility of the MOU, the possibility that clearance drags closer to worst-case estimates, and the potential deterrence of Iran's post-60-day toll regime cnn.com. Furthermore, because resolution strictly depends on the IMF PortWatch API, there is measurement risk: PortWatch explicitly notes that ongoing GPS jamming, AIS spoofing, and vessels transiting 'dark' may artificially depress the recorded transit counts portwatch.imf.orgportwatch.imf.org.