When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

rationale:

The resolution of this market depends not just on physical traffic returning to the Strait of Hormuz, but specifically on the IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average (7DMA) of transit calls exceeding 60. While pre-crisis traffic averaged 100-138 vessels per day services9.arcgis.com, meaning the threshold requires only 55-60% of normal capacity, current official numbers remain highly depressed. As of June 21, the official PortWatch 7DMA was roughly 13.1 services9.arcgis.com. To hit the 60 threshold, a rapid surge in tracked transits is required. A fragile 60-day US-Iran roadmap reached around June 15-22 has initiated a partial reopening hormuzstraitmonitor.com. However, a critical divergence exists between physical traffic and the resolution metric. For example, on June 20, CENTCOM and Reuters reported 55 merchant ships transiting the Strait reuters.com, but the official PortWatch count recorded only 23 services9.arcgis.com. PortWatch relies on AIS data, and many vessels are currently operating 'dark' (with AIS turned off) due to ongoing threats, GPS jamming, spoofing portwatch.imf.org, mine risks, and high war-risk insurance reuters.com. Iran's June 25 warning that unauthorized crossings will be 'dealt with' english.alarabiya.net suggests this AIS suppression will persist in the short term. Before July 1 (6%): A near-term clearance of the 60 threshold is virtually impossible. The 7DMA is sitting in the low teens, and reaching 60 in less than a week would require an immediate, massive spike in ships actively broadcasting AIS, which structural safety headwinds prohibit. Before July 15 (25%) and August 1 (48%): Probabilities rise substantially as hundreds of stranded vessels wait in a backlog. If the fragile ceasefire holds, this backlog could trigger a surge in traffic that pulls the 7DMA up. However, clearing 60 will depend on the security environment stabilizing enough for operators to feel comfortable turning their AIS transponders back on. Before late 2026 to Jan 1, 2027 (62% - 81%): Because the 60-ship threshold is relatively modest compared to the pre-war baseline, a durable reopening strongly favors resolution by year-end. The remaining 19% tail risk reflects the possibility of a ceasefire that keeps collapsing (as seen on June 20 when Iran briefly declared the strait closed over Israeli strikes in Lebanon 2 sources), persistent route and insurance delays, or a scenario where physical traffic recovers but AIS-dark transits keep the official PortWatch metric artificially suppressed below 60.