Iran crude oil production in Jun 2026

rationale:

The resolution depends on Iran's June 2026 crude oil production as reported by OPEC secondary sources in the July 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). To establish the baseline: Iran's production collapsed from 2.875 mbpd in April to 2.33 mbpd in May 2026 2 sources. This 19% monthly drop was driven by the US naval blockade and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which crushed exports to roughly 209–300 kb/d reuters.com.

June Production Dynamics The June average blends two distinct periods. For the first 15–18 days of the month, the industry faced continued depression. As domestic and floating storage reached maximum limits, Iran was forced to accelerate well shut-ins, pushing total production toward a floor set by domestic refinery demand, estimated around 1.8 to 2.0 mbpd 2 sources.

A mid-June US-Iran memorandum lifted the blockade, and Hormuz traffic began resuming around June 17–19 reuters.com. While this allows for a late-month production uptick, the physical recovery will be explicitly slow. Restarting mature carbonate wells is technically challenging, and full normalization of output is projected to take weeks to months reuters.com.

Distribution and Key Uncertainties Weighting roughly 17 heavily depressed days near the 1.8–1.9 mbpd domestic floor against 13 days of partial recovery yields a central estimate for the June average of roughly 2.1 mbpd.

• Lower thresholds (1.6M to 1.8M): Downside risk is strongly capped by domestic refinery demand, resulting in high confidence (85–94%) that output clears these levels .
• Mid-range (2.0M to 2.4M): The probability of clearing 2.0M is solid (62%), but chances drop sharply at 2.2M (36%) and 2.4M (18%). For the June average to exceed May's 2.33 mbpd, the late-month recovery would need to be remarkably swift. The primary upside uncertainty here is methodological: OPEC secondary sources heavily rely on vessel tracking, and they might lag the physical reality, artificially smooth out the disruption, or conflate resumed sales from storage with fresh wellhead production.
• Upper thresholds (2.6M+): Reaching 2.6M (9%) or 2.8M (5%) is highly implausible. The mathematical reality of spending more than half the month near 2.0 mbpd makes it virtually impossible for the June average to recover to April levels. Pre-war output levels of 3.4M+ have essentially zero probability (1%) in this timeframe.