Which leaders will leave office in 2026? [Subquestion: Benjamin Netanyahu]

probability: 44%

rationale:

Evidence suggests Israel is highly likely to hold elections in the fall of 2026. A Knesset dissolution bill has passed its first reading timesofisrael.com, creating an election window of September 8 to October 20, with a statutory deadline of October 27, 2026 en.wikipedia.org. Despite public pressure and polling indicating 61% of Israelis think he should not run, Netanyahu is actively campaigning and his party has confirmed he will seek re-election 2 sources.

The primary mechanism for Netanyahu leaving office before January 1, 2027, is a post-election replacement. Polls currently show the anti-Netanyahu bloc ahead, projecting roughly 57–62 seats against the Netanyahu bloc's 50–53 seats timesofisrael.com. However, the opposition faces a structural "math problem" in reaching the required 61-seat majority without relying on Arab parties, which they have historically refused to partner with 2 sources. This dynamic increases the likelihood of an electoral deadlock or a protracted negotiation period.

A critical structural hurdle to a departure before 2027 is the legal and procedural timeline. Under Israeli law, an incumbent remains as a caretaker prime minister until a successor government is formally sworn in en.idi.org.il. Remaining as a caretaker does not constitute leaving office. The formal government-formation process typically runs through a 28-day mandate, a possible 14-day extension, a secondary 28-day mandate, and further attempts 2 sources. Historically, coalition formation takes 6 to 12 weeks. If the election is held near the October 27 deadline timesofisrael.com, swearing in a fractious anti-Netanyahu coalition before January 1, 2027, will be highly challenging.

Alternative paths to departure, such as a voluntary resignation, health issues, or a plea deal, carry very low probabilities. Netanyahu's reported prostate cancer treatment was successful reuters.com, he has stated he would not quit politics if pardoned reuters.com, and President Herzog has indicated any pardon must be preceded by a formal deal reuters.com.

Ultimately, a departure before 2027 requires the opposition to win the election and successfully negotiate and swear in a new government before January 1. Balancing the opposition's polling advantage against the severe timing constraints of an autumn election and complex coalition math, the probability of an official exit by year-end is slightly below even.