Which leaders will leave office in 2026? [Subquestion: Miguel Díaz-Canel]

probability: 48%

rationale:

The probability of Miguel Díaz-Canel leaving his post as First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) by January 1, 2027, is assessed at 48%. This estimate balances the unprecedented intensity of the U.S. regime-change campaign against the Cuban state's historical resilience and the disruption of its institutional succession mechanisms.

A critical factor anchoring this probability below a coin flip is the elimination of the routine institutional path for leadership transition in 2026. The 9th Party Congress, originally scheduled for April 16–19, 2026 pcc.cu, is the formal venue where the Central Committee elects the First Secretary. However, the Congress was postponed indefinitely in late 2025 to focus on the country's economic crisis 44 sources. Recent official communications continue to present Díaz-Canel as First Secretary pcc.cu, significantly reducing the likelihood of an orderly, scheduled succession this year.

However, the probability remains elevated due to an extraordinary and escalating U.S. pressure campaign. The Trump administration has explicitly demanded Díaz-Canel's departure as a prerequisite for sanctions relief nytimes.com, imposed targeted personal sanctions on him in June 2026 3 sources, and enforced a crippling energy blockade. Most importantly, the U.S. military capture of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro in January 2026—accompanied by explicit warnings that Cuba is 'next' 2 sources—demonstrates a credible, high-variance threat of a forced ouster or systemic collapse.

Counterweighing this threat is the regime's well-documented durability. Havana has categorically rejected negotiating its political system or the tenure of its officials with Washington 2 sources, with Díaz-Canel asserting that stepping down is 'not part of our vocabulary' 2 sources. Furthermore, U.S. military bandwidth is currently strained by tensions in Iran, which may afford Cuba a more flexible timeline for survival.

Finally, the strict parameters of this question necessitate a crucial distinction: it concerns the role of First Secretary, not the presidency. U.S. demands have largely focused on the presidency. In a scenario involving a negotiated transition or an internal reshuffle to appease Washington, Díaz-Canel could cede the presidency while retaining the supreme party post—a maneuver successfully executed by Raúl Castro between 2018 and 2021. Such an outcome would preserve his position as First Secretary. While broader market consensus hovers around 58%, the indefinite postponement of the Party Congress, the operational complexities of decapitating the Cuban regime, and the distinct possibility of Díaz-Canel retaining his party leadership even if he yields the presidency support a slightly lower assessment of 48%.