US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

probability: 5%

rationale:

The probability of a Yes resolution is very low (5%), primarily because the resolution criteria strictly require the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to issue a new "combined license" (COL) authorizing both construction and operations. A construction permit (CP) will not suffice ans.org. The current market price of 16% likely conflates recent momentum in construction permits with the much higher hurdle of a combined license.

The Crucial Distinction: COL vs. CP Current high-profile nuclear regulatory activity is heavily focused on construction permits (10 CFR Part 50), not combined licenses (10 CFR Part 52). Reactor projects like TerraPower Natrium, Kairos Hermes, Dow/X-energy, and TVA Clinch River are all pursuing or have received construction permits [Clinch River; ans-7818]nrc.govnrc.govnrc.gov. These do not satisfy the criteria, as they do not authorize operations.

Current COL Landscape Historical precedents show COLs are extremely rare; none have been issued since 2018 [col-holder]. The most plausible live path for a new COL is Fermi America’s AP1000 application. However, timelines make an issuance by the end of 2026 virtually impossible. While the NRC accepted Parts 1 and 2 of Fermi’s COL application in September 2025 nrc.gov, the submission of Part 3 (site-specific information) is not targeted until December 31, 2026 nrc.gov. Furthermore, Fermi withdrew some Part 3 environmental-report material in December 2025 while transitioning into a NEPA pilot process nrc.gov. Because the final safety evaluation, mandatory hearing, and Commission decision must follow a complete application, these milestones are strictly "To Be Determined" and cannot occur before 2027. Other past COL candidates, such as Oklo's Aurora, had their applications denied in 2022 and are not currently under advanced review nrc.govgain.inl.gov.

Regulatory Reforms While political and regulatory acceleration—such as the May 2025 executive order (EO 14300) mandating 18-month deadlines whitehouse.gov and the NRC’s June 2026 mandatory-hearing policy federalregister.gov—aims to streamline the process, these measures cannot produce a decision before a complete application exists. New fast-track frameworks like Part 53 and Part 57 (effective April 2026) are too recent to yield a finalized COL by year-end.

Conclusion Given the lack of a mature COL application and rigid statutory timelines for NRC reviews, the fundamental probability of a true COL issuance by the end of 2026 is near zero. The 5% estimate accounts almost entirely for the residual risk of resolution ambiguity—specifically, the slight chance that a construction permit issuance (e.g., for TVA Clinch River) is loosely interpreted to satisfy the broader market title, despite the explicitly narrow criteria.