US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

probability: 5%

rationale:

The final probability estimate of 5% reflects the strict, procedural requirements of the resolution criteria, which specifically demand the issuance of a Part 52 'combined license' (COL) authorizing both construction and operations.

A review of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) pipeline indicates that meeting this standard before 2027 is procedurally near-impossible. The last COLs were issued between 2012 and 2018 (e.g., Turkey Point 6&7 in 2018), and no COL has been issued since nrc.gov.

Currently, the only active COL application is Fermi America's Project Matador nrc.gov. However, this application remains incomplete. According to the NRC's September 2025 acceptance letter, the application will not be considered complete until Part 3 is received, which currently has a target submission date of December 31, 2026 [e828a]. The NRC cannot begin its mandatory acceptance review, safety and environmental evaluations, formal Federal Register hearing notices, and subsequent mandatory Commission hearings until that final part is docketed nrc.gov. Even under the most aggressive, newly proposed 18-month review timelines, a COL issuance in 2026 cannot occur. Furthermore, Oklo's previous COLA was denied in 2022, and it remains in the pre-application phase for a new submission nrc.gov nrc.gov.

It is crucial to distinguish a COL from a Part 50 construction permit. Recent high-profile nuclear milestones—such as TerraPower's Natrium, X-energy/Long Mott, TVA Clinch River, and Pioneer—involve construction permits nrc.gov nrc.gov nrc.gov nrc.gov. Construction permits authorize building but require a separate operating license application before operations can begin, meaning they explicitly do not satisfy the 'combined license' criterion.

The fundamental probability of a true COL issuance before 2027 is virtually zero. The remaining 5% probability almost exclusively accounts for resolution ambiguity risk—namely, the small possibility that the resolver mistakenly accepts a construction permit or limited-work authorization as sufficient despite the explicit requirement for a combined license.