Price of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute in Q2?

rationale:

The resolution criteria for this market hinge on a 'running-maximum' or barrier-style condition—specifically, whether the Ornn RTX 5090 USD compute index rises above the target strike at any point 'by Jun 30, 2026' api.elections.kalshi.com. This contrasts with a spot-at-close settlement and fundamentally shapes the probability distribution.

Crucially, historical data from the official settlement source, the Ornn index-history API dashboard.ornnai.com, shows that the RTX 5090 index experienced a significant price spike in late May. The index rose from the high-$0.40s in April and early May to print at $1.16 on May 29, reached a peak of $1.33 on May 30, and printed at $1.32 on May 31 api.ornnai.com. Because the index demonstrably recorded a $1.33 value during the active Q2 window, all thresholds up to and including $1.26 have effectively already been triggered.

I assess the probabilities for strikes from $0.56 through $1.26 at 94–98%. They are not priced at an absolute 100% due to a minor allowance for procedural or adjudication risk—namely, the unlikely but non-zero possibility that the exchange erroneously resolves the market based on the terminal June 30 spot price rather than the realized high-water mark. The exchange's current quoted odds (e.g., ~60% for the $1.26 strike) heavily underprice these already-hit thresholds, signaling market inefficiency rather than underlying uncertainty.

For the $1.36 and $1.46 strikes, the probabilities drop steeply into the single digits (7% and 3%, respectively). The late-May peak of $1.33 fell short of the $1.36 threshold, and the index has since experienced a sharp bearish downtrend, falling steadily from $1.23 on June 1 to $0.58 by June 19 api.ornnai.com. External rental references corroborate this current weakness, with Vast displaying RTX 5090 compute at $0.44/hr vast.ai and Runpod listing pods at $0.99/hr runpod.io. For the unhit $1.36 or $1.46 thresholds to be satisfied, the index would require a drastic, renewed spike from the current ~$0.58 level in the remaining 11 days of the quarter. Given the prevailing downward trajectory, this outcome remains highly improbable.