How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

rationale:

As of June 25, 2026, SpaceX has already completed 12 launches this month. This count is firmly corroborated by SpaceX's official mission manifests and independent launch trackers 99 sources. Because 12 launches are already banked, the 'Above 10' and 'Above 11' thresholds are essentially certain (99-100%), with the nominal residual probability strictly capturing extreme edge cases involving FAA data delays or resolution technicalities.

Looking ahead to the remainder of June, primary-source data from the FAA Operations Plan Advisory fly.faa.gov and SpaceX spacex.com indicate exactly two more launches are firmly scheduled before month-end: Starlink 17-40 from Vandenberg (targeting June 28) and SXM-11 from Cape Canaveral (targeting June 28/29).

The central estimate for total June launches is exactly 14. The remaining nested probabilities flow directly from the state of this pipeline:

• Above 12 (≥13 launches, 99%): Achieving 13 launches requires only one of the two scheduled flights to occur before July. Because these missions operate from separate coasts with no shared weather or pad constraints, completing at least one is near-certain.
• Above 13 (≥14 launches, 91%): Hitting 14 launches requires both Starlink 17-40 and SXM-11 to launch on time. The ~9% risk here reflects standard aerospace tail risks—particularly a technical or weather scrub pushing the SXM-11 launch past June 30, despite current reports of excellent weather at the Cape palmbeachpost.com.
• Above 14 (≥15 launches, 5%): Surpassing 14 launches would require an unscheduled mission to be accelerated and executed by June 30. The FAA and SpaceX manifests show a deliberate cadence gap until July 1, making an unannounced addition unlikely but not impossible (e.g., a short-notice Starlink mission).
• Above 15/16/18 (≤1%): Totals of 16 or more would require multiple unannounced additions in a five-day window, which is functionally implausible given current manifest and range logistics.