Summary The likelihood of legislation temporarily suspending or reducing the federal gasoline excise tax becoming law before January 1, 2027, is assessed at 8%. While multiple bills were introduced in the spring of 2026 to suspend the 18.4 cents-per-gallon tax amid a spike in fuel prices, momentum has largely dissipated. Historically, the federal gas tax has never been suspended since the creation of the Highway Trust Fund (HTF) in 1956 2 sources, establishing a formidable historical base
Summary The June 2, 2026, Republican primary for South Dakota Governor ended without a definitive nominee, as no candidate reached the state's required 35% threshold for an outright victory 2 sources. Toby Doeden led the competitive four-way field with 30.6% of the vote (41,705 votes), followed by incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden with 25.2% (34,316 votes) electionresults.sd.gov. Consequently, the two leading candidates advanced to a historic runoff election scheduled for July 28, 2026 2 sources.
Summary This assessment evaluates a two-part outcome regarding the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race: whether Graham Platner will be the Democratic nominee and whether a Democrat will win the general election. The first condition is already functionally satisfied. Graham Platner resoundingly won the Maine Democratic primary on June 9, 2026, securing approximately 72% of the vote en.wikipedia.org. Because of this, the overall probability hinges entirely on the general election matchup between Platner a
Summary The probability of the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz exceeding 60 before August 1, 2026, is assessed to be extremely low. The core issue is the massive gap between current shipping volumes and the required threshold, coupled with a severely constrained timeline. As of early June 2026, the IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average stands at approximately 5.14, a dramatic collapse from pre-war levels of 130-140 daily vessels 2 sources. To reach the thre
Summary The likelihood of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz returning to a 7-day moving average above 60 before December 1, 2026, currently sits at 60%. As of early June 2026, commercial traffic remains severely disrupted, with the moving average sitting at roughly 5-6 ships per day en.macromicro.me compared to a pre-crisis average of 100-140 ships 2 sources. To reach the required threshold, traffic only needs to recover to roughly half of its historical norm. There are significa
Summary The likelihood of the United States and Iran agreeing to a qualifying nuclear deal before August 1, 2026, is currently assessed at 22%. While there is significant diplomatic momentum toward a short-term agreement, the strict criteria required for a qualifying deal present a major hurdle. Evidence suggests that an imminent Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is primarily designed as a war-ending and ceasefire framework rather than a comprehensive nuclear agreement cbsnews.com. This preliminary
Summary Barry Moore is currently favored to win the June 16, 2026, Republican primary runoff for the Alabama U.S. Senate seat, though the race remains highly competitive. The seat, left open by Tommy Tuberville's gubernatorial run politico.com, has generated a fierce contest. Moore, a sitting U.S. Representative, secured a commanding first-place finish in the May 19 primary with 39.2% of the vote, significantly ahead of former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson's 25.6% 2 sources. Because no candidate rea
Summary The probability of the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz exceeding 60 before September 1, 2026, rests primarily on the timeline of a potential diplomatic resolution to the ongoing conflict. As of early June 2026, the current average is abysmally low, hovering around 5 transit calls per day compared to the pre-crisis normal of 100-140 2 sources. The Strait has been under a de facto dual blockade since late February 2026, drastically suppressing traf
Summary The Federal Reserve is highly likely to maintain its benchmark federal funds rate at the current 3.50%–3.75% range during the July 2026 FOMC meeting. The current federal funds rate has been maintained at this level since the Fed completed a prior rate-cut cycle, holding steady through all four FOMC meetings in early 2026 investing.com. The broader macroeconomic environment supports a sustained hold, as inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target, while the labor market demonstrates
Summary As of June 12, 2026, the probability of the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz exceeding 60 by July 1 is extremely low. The Strait has been effectively closed since late February 2026 due to the U.S.-Iran conflict, causing a collapse in daily transits from a pre-crisis baseline of 120-140 down to single digits. According to the most recent IMF PortWatch data from early June, the 7-day moving average is hovering around 5 en.macromicro.me. Hitting the 60 thr
Summary Executive Order 14160, signed by President Trump in January 2025, seeks to end birthright citizenship for children born in the U.S. to undocumented immigrants and temporary visa holders en.wikipedia.org. However, the order has been continuously blocked by multiple federal district court injunctions and has never been in effect at any point since its issuance 3 sources. The resolution criteria are highly specific: the order only counts as "into effect" if no federal courts prohibit
Summary The probability of Abdul El-Sayed winning the Democratic nomination for the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat currently leans in his favor, driven by a consistent polling advantage and a highly mobilized progressive base. The race is a competitive three-way primary scheduled for August 4, 2026, featuring El-Sayed, Representative Haley Stevens, and State Senator Mallory McMorrow cnn.com. Recent polling aggregates show El-Sayed maintaining a narrow but steady lead of roughly 2 to 5 point
Summary The probability of a new nuclear reactor combined license (COL) being issued by December 31, 2026, is effectively zero. The resolution criteria specifically require the issuance of a 10 CFR Part 52 Combined License, which authorizes both construction and operation. The NRC has not issued a new COL in over eight years, with the last being for Turkey Point Units 6 and 7 in April 2018 nrc.gov. Recent momentum in the nuclear regulatory space has overwhelmingly utilized the two-step
Summary US-Iran negotiations are highly active as of mid-June 2026, with diplomatic efforts aimed at ending the ongoing war. While an initial ceasefire or memorandum of understanding (MOU) appears imminent, a close examination of the expected terms and the structural challenges of the negotiations indicates a low probability of a qualifying nuclear deal being reached by the September 1 deadline. To meet the necessary criteria, any agreement must include concrete, verifiable restrictions on Iran'
Summary The upcoming Democratic primary for New York's 13th congressional district presents a highly competitive race between challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier and five-term incumbent Representative Adriano Espaillat. While recent momentum appears to favor Chevalier, a closer look at polling methodology and structural advantages suggests the incumbent remains the favorite, resulting in a 40% probability of Chevalier winning the nomination. The perception of Chevalier's lead is heavily driven
Summary The current probability that the September 2026 Brent crude futures contract (BRENTU6) will close above 92.99 USD/Bbl on June 30, 2026, is estimated at 26%. The driving force behind this assessment is the significant gap between the current market price and the target threshold, balanced against the extremely high volatility of the ongoing Middle East conflict. As of mid-June 2026, the relevant Brent contract is trading in the mid-$80s, roughly between $85.32 and $85.91 2 sources.
Summary As of mid-June 2026, there is no evidence that the United States federal government holds an equity stake in Anthropic. While the administration has signaled a strong desire to acquire equity in leading artificial intelligence companies, the likelihood of a completed acquisition involving Anthropic before January 1, 2027, is highly improbable. The primary driver of this low probability is the deeply adversarial relationship currently existing between Anthropic and the federal government.
Summary The probability of the September 2026 Brent crude futures contract closing above $96.99/Bbl by June 30, 2026, is estimated at 12%. Currently, the relevant contract is trading around $85 to $86, which is significantly below the required threshold. For the contract to close above $96.99, it would require a roughly 13% price increase over the remaining 18 calendar days, or approximately 12 to 13 trading days. The overriding driver of the oil market at this juncture is the status of the Stra
Summary The probability of a New York Stock Exchange market-wide circuit breaker (MWCB) being triggered before January 1, 2027, is estimated at 8%. A Level 1 MWCB requires a single-day decline of at least 7% in the S&P 500 index from the previous close, a severe threshold that historically constitutes an extremely rare tail event. Under the modern percentage-based system, circuit breakers have only been triggered during the March 2020 COVID-19 panic, with an older point-based trigger occurring o
Summary The assessment that Supergirl will achieve a Rotten Tomatoes score above 70 sits at 65%, reflecting a balance between a strong creative pedigree and troubling signs of production difficulties. On the positive side, director Craig Gillespie has a proven track record of delivering critically well-received films, and the broader DC Universe under James Gunn has started strong, with Superman earning high marks rottentomatoes.com. Early internal screenings and some press reactions have praised the film
Summary The probability of the United States having at least 4,700 data centers listed by Data Center Map at the end of 2026 is high. As of June 12, 2026, the database already listed 4,353 U.S. data centers datacentermap.com. To reach the 4,700 threshold by December 31, 2026, a net increase of 347 listings is required over the remaining 6.6 months, which translates to a pace of roughly 52 to 53 new listings per month. Historical listing trends strongly suggest this pace is achievable. Over the past two y
Summary The probability of Brent crude oil (September 2026 contract, BRENTU6) closing strictly above $90.99 USD/Bbl on June 30, 2026, rests primarily on a quantitative assessment of market volatility and the trajectory of Middle East geopolitical tensions. As of mid-June 2026, the relevant contract is trading between $85.85 and $87.00, placing it approximately $4 to $5 (or 5-6%) below the target threshold 2 sources. This price reflects a recent sharp 3% to 4% drop following reports of de-
Summary Mike Mazzei is the clear frontrunner for the 2026 Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial nomination. His position has improved dramatically over the course of the race. Early polling in February showed him trailing sitting Attorney General Gentner Drummond by a wide margin (13% to 36%) chs-inc.com. However, by late May, the race tightened into a near four-way tie nondoc.com. The turning point occurred on May 29, when Donald Trump officially endorsed Mazzei, calling him a "MAGA Warr
Summary The probability of Oklo achieving criticality before August 1, 2026, is exceedingly low. Oklo has two relevant reactor projects: the Aurora Powerhouse and the Groves isotope test reactor. The Aurora Powerhouse, Oklo's primary project at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), is not scheduled for deployment until late 2027 or early 2028 2 sources. As of June 11, 2026, Aurora had only received Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis (PDSA) approval from the Department of Energy [185ec7, 5e
Summary The probability of the United States reporting more than 10 New World screwworm (NWS) infestation cases in 2026 is extremely high, primarily because the country is already on the verge of surpassing this threshold in the first half of the year. As of early June 2026, nine confirmed animal cases have already been documented across Texas and New Mexico 2 sources, arriving only a week after the first domestic detection on June 3 2 sources. New World screwworm is fundamentally
Summary To resolve positively, SpaceX must complete 14 or more launches in June 2026. As of June 12, SpaceX has successfully executed 6 launches spaceflightnow.com, meaning they need 8 additional launches in the remaining 18 days of the month. The current pace of 0.5 launches per day puts them on a trajectory for about 15 total launches in June, comfortably exceeding the threshold. The required cadence going forward is only 0.44 launches per day, which is slightly below what the company has already demons
Summary The resolution criteria for this question require that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) declares in an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that El Niño conditions are present before July 1, 2026. This condition has already been unambiguously met. On June 11, 2026, the NOAA CPC issued an ENSO Diagnostic Discussion that explicitly states: "El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27"
Summary The probability that comprehensive crypto market structure legislation becomes law before August 1, 2026, is estimated at 13%. The primary legislative vehicle, the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act (H.R. 3633), has made historic progress and clearly satisfies the necessary criteria by establishing a broad regulatory framework, delineating SEC and CFTC authority, and classifying digital commodities 3 sources. However, clearing the remaining legislative hurdles with
Summary The probability that Brent crude oil (BRENTU6) closes above $76.99 on June 30, 2026, is highly likely, largely driven by the current price cushion and the logistical realities of global oil supply constraints. As of mid-June 2026, the relevant September contract is trading between $85 and $89, giving it an approximate $8 to $12 buffer (or roughly 10% to 14%) above the target threshold. While oil prices have experienced a sharp downtrend—dropping around 17% over the past month from crisis
Summary SpaceX is on track to potentially exceed 12 launches in June 2026, meaning 13 or more launches are required to reach the target. As of June 12, SpaceX has successfully completed 6 launches for the month 3 sources, an impressive start that puts the company well ahead of an average monthly pace. The current launch cadence is approximately 0.5 launches per day, which projects to around 15 launches for the full month of June. Furthermore, there are at least 5 to 7 scheduled mi
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