Who will be the next President of the United States after Donald Trump's current term (2028 election)?

rationale:

As of July 2026, the 2028 presidential race is structurally an open-seat contest, given that Donald Trump is term-limited under the 22nd Amendment constitution.congress.gov. At this stage, approximately 2.5 years prior to the election, the macro environment slightly favors the out-party. Trump's current approval rating is underwater at 40.5% approve to 57.4% disapprove realclearpolling.com, and Democrats hold a generic congressional ballot lead of 48.5% to 42.9% realclearpolling.com. Combined market-implied odds reflect this baseline, pointing to roughly a 56-58% chance for a Democratic victory electionbettingodds.comelectionbettingodds.com.

On the Democratic side, the field is wide open and highly fragmented, making 'Other Democrat' the single most likely outcome at 38%. Gavin Newsom is the strongest named contender at 14%; his recent national exposure and book tour are widely viewed as a 2028 prelude cnn.com. Kamala Harris is heavily discounted at 4%. Despite her name recognition in early primary polling realclearpolling.com270towin.com, she faces significant skepticism from donors and former allies who are reportedly looking for a fresher face abcnews.com. The large 'Other' probability absorbs a deep bench of viable figures, including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Pete Buttigieg, Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, and Jon Ossoff kalshi.com.

On the Republican side, sitting Vice President JD Vance is the clear named frontrunner at 19%. Ron DeSantis has faded significantly to 2% following his 2024 primary run and impending term limits. However, the 'Other Republican' category captures a substantial 23% probability, largely because it includes Marco Rubio. Rubio has emerged as a formidable co-frontrunner in several market proxies, nearly tying Vance for the GOP nomination and general election odds on platforms like Kalshi kalshi.comkalshi.comkalshi.com. Trump has also publicly praised a Vance/Rubio dynamic as 'very hard to beat' reuters.com, elevating Rubio's profile.

Key uncertainties at this distance include the inherent volatility of thin long-term prediction markets, massive macroeconomic or foreign policy shifts, the potential for Trump to intervene decisively in the GOP primary, or unexpected early consolidation in the Democratic field.