Final estimates: p10=$800M, p25=$1.8B, p50=$3.8B, p75=$8.5B, p90=$18B. Initial logic and parameters are validated regarding Discovery Loop's August 5, 2026 launch, its elite ex-Google researchers qz.com, heavy-hitting venture participants nytimes.com, and the lean AI-for-science approach initially capping capital intensity wired.com. Standard processing applied to downside resolution risks where funding amounts remain undisclosed or rely on uncounted Google Cloud compute credits. Jumping directly to the final transformation, the cumulative total shifts downward to remain financially consistent with the projected valuation of the company's first funding round . The right tail leaps to acknowledge the possibility that the lab eventually pivots to raise massive strategic compute debt or equity in an overheated market to aggressively poach remaining Google talent .