Final estimates: p10=2030-01-01, p25=2032-01-01, p50=2036-01-01, p75=2042-06-01, p90=2053-01-01. Initial logic and parameters are validated: Ineffable Intelligence's focus on experience-based reinforcement learning wired.com and its parallel to other paradigm-shifting bets serve as established context. This stable trajectory aligns with the broader view that experience-based learning will take a decade to reach frontier parity despite earlier intermediate milestones , anchoring the 10th percentile in January 2030 and placing the median in January 2036. A 25% chance of an algorithmic breakthrough or a rapid pivot toward hybrid language-RL models pulls the 25th percentile into January 2032. The 15% risk that the approach fails to generalize entirely or results in absorption by investors secures the 75th percentile in June 2042 and pushes the 90th percentile to January 2053.