CONDITIONAL ON OpenAI NOT having released a step-change model before IPO: What will OpenAI's market capitalization be 90 days after its IPO?

This forecast is conditional on OpenAI NOT releasing a step-change model before its IPO. Because this condition filters out our most exuberant, hyper-growth scenarios where a flagship launch drives peak market froth, the distribution's upper tail is significantly truncated compared to our unconditional first-day public trading forecast . Without a step-change model, OpenAI yields the industry narrative to competitors cnbc.com. A past forecast for a key rival's post-IPO market cap reflects this lead with a median around $1.85 trillion , well above our expectation for OpenAI lacking a similar catalyst. We expect the IPO would rely on steady baseline ARR compounding , supporting a lowered median 90-day post-IPO market cap of $1.03 trillion. This lowered median and significantly truncated upper tail better reflect the diminished capability premium and lost market exuberance in a scenario without a new flagship model, placing the valuation well below the $1.40 trillion projected by an earlier forecast if such a model were released . The upside tail (P90 of $1.50 trillion) is reserved for scenarios where the IPO slips late into 2027, allowing baseline run rates to exceed $100 billion even without a new frontier model. The downside (P10 of $0.62 trillion) incorporates a 30% risk of a severe AI infrastructure bust triggering a 50% market drawdown and broader tech selloffs nbcnews.com.