CONDITIONAL ON OpenAI having released a step-change model before IPO: What will OpenAI's market capitalization be 90 days after its IPO?

Conditional on OpenAI releasing a step-change model before its IPO (a scenario we price at 42% probability ), the company forcefully restores its capability premium. This technological breakthrough bolsters the IPO narrative, framing the listing as the coronation of the undisputed frontier leader. Evaluating this scenario alongside broader assumptions about AI benchmark timelines and IPO narratives narrows the extreme upper tail while affirming the strong valuation premium a technological breakthrough would provide. This optimistic branch projects a significantly higher valuation curve, with a median 90-day post-IPO market cap of $1,350B. The right tail stretches to $2,200B, reflecting a euphoric market reception, while the bearish tail remains elevated at $800B, bounded only by potential macroeconomic headwinds.