These rows are being…: By what factor will…

Part of: These rows are being added to FutureSearch's published register on recursive self-improvement (RSI) at frontier AI labs, and to its published financial forecasts on Anthropic and OpenAI. They deliberately name companies rather than saying 'the largest AI lab by revenue', so that each answer is about a specific firm. UPLIFT CONVENTION (applies to every row that mentions uplift). 'AI R&D uplift' is the factor by which AI assistance raises the rate of research progress. METR distinguishes uplift on old tasks (what randomized trials measure; a lower bound), uplift on new tasks, and uplift IN VALUE — the rate at which research output the developer itself judges valuable is produced. All uplift rows here resolve on uplift IN VALUE. Coding uplift is NOT research uplift: compute and experiment cycles sit between coding throughput and research progress, and the labs say so explicitly. ATTRIBUTION STANDARD. Where a source says someone thinks, claims, projects or estimates, that is evidence about the speaker, not about the world. Do not adopt any published median or scenario as a premise. NOW-CAST ROWS ask for the TRUE current value, which nobody publishes. Estimate what is true, not what has been documented. — view all 9 rows

By what factor will the rate of valuable AI research output at Anthropic on 2029-12-31 exceed the rate that would obtain on that same date if Anthropic's researchers had no access to AI assistance?✓#2

ratio5.17dimensionless multiple

p10
1.624
p25
2.62
p50
5.175
p75
11.9
p90
34.32

rationale:

Final estimates - p10: 1.624, p25: 2.62, p50: 5.175, p75: 11.9, p90: 34.32. What is being forecast. Initial logic and parameters are validated. Status quo anchor. Standard processing applied. Direction and speed of travel. Standard processing applied. Structural bottlenecks. Standard processing applied. Synthesis and tail risks. Deriving this estimate as the explicit mathematical product of a mid-2026 baseline and a projected 2026-2029 growth factor directly transforms the projection, enforcing strict mathematical consistency so this value is exactly the product of the 2026 baseline and the projected growth ratio at every percentile. The p50 rests at 5.175x, while the structural endpoints leap to a p10 of 1.624x and a p90 of 34.32x, with intermediate variables resolved to p25 at 2.62x and p75 at 11.9x.

Enforced strict mathematical consistency so this value is exactly the product of the 2026 baseline and the projected growth ratio at every percentile.

Ask a followup

Ask a followup