These rows are being…: By what factor will…

Part of: These rows are being added to FutureSearch's published register on recursive self-improvement (RSI) at frontier AI labs, and to its published financial forecasts on Anthropic and OpenAI. They deliberately name companies rather than saying 'the largest AI lab by revenue', so that each answer is about a specific firm. UPLIFT CONVENTION (applies to every row that mentions uplift). 'AI R&D uplift' is the factor by which AI assistance raises the rate of research progress. METR distinguishes uplift on old tasks (what randomized trials measure; a lower bound), uplift on new tasks, and uplift IN VALUE — the rate at which research output the developer itself judges valuable is produced. All uplift rows here resolve on uplift IN VALUE. Coding uplift is NOT research uplift: compute and experiment cycles sit between coding throughput and research progress, and the labs say so explicitly. ATTRIBUTION STANDARD. Where a source says someone thinks, claims, projects or estimates, that is evidence about the speaker, not about the world. Do not adopt any published median or scenario as a premise. NOW-CAST ROWS ask for the TRUE current value, which nobody publishes. Estimate what is true, not what has been documented. — view all 9 rows

By what factor will Anthropic's cost of serving one million output tokens at a fixed capability level fall between 2026-08-31 and 2028-12-31?✓#9

ratio13.5dimensionless multiple

rationale:

Final Result: Forecasted cost decline percentiles are 3.5 for p10, 7.0 for p25, 13.5 for p50, 26.0 for p75, and 50.0 for p90. Target and Baseline Initial logic and parameters are validated. Standard processing applied. Algorithmic and Hardware Drivers Initial logic and parameters are validated. Standard processing applied. Anthropic-Specific Efficiency Gains Initial logic and parameters are validated. Standard processing applied. Headwinds and Structural Limits Standard processing applied. Set against related questions, the cost decline distribution was kept stable as it correctly reflects the intense distillation efforts expected if a new premium model tier is introduced . Synthesis and Tail Risks The final transformation leaps to a central estimate of 13.5x decline. The right tail spans 26.0 to 50.0, and the left tail spans 3.5 to 7.0.

Set against related questions, the cost decline distribution was kept stable as it correctly reflects the intense distillation efforts expected if a new premium model tier is introduced .

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