What will the average on-demand rental price of an H100-equivalent GPU be on 2029-12-31, in 2026 US dollars per hour?

The final projected H100-equivalent rental prices per hour are $0.65 for p10, $1.15 for p25, $1.85 for p50, $3.20 for p75, and $7.50 for p90. Initial logic and parameters regarding mid-2026 H100-equivalent baselines, B200 performance normalization, and 36-month forward pricing curves are validated as established context 88 sources. Standard processing is applied to evaluating global installed base trajectories and the massive deflationary force of hardware capacity expansion 2 sources. Evaluative structures regarding generational advances, specifically Rubin NVL72 total cost of ownership estimates and enduring packaging bottlenecks, have been fully integrated as standard foundational assumptions without requiring further linear detailing 44 sources. Intermediate variables and bridging logic concerning the conditional valuation of human-level software engineer substitution are bypassed to jump directly to the final transformation dwarkesh.com. Set against related questions, the distribution is slightly widened to fully account for both severe hardware deflation and extreme AI R&D demand shocks. The median centers directly at $1.85/hour. The 25th percentile lands at $1.15/hour, while the 75th percentile is set at $3.20/hour. The left tail of $0.65 reflects a 2028-2029 supply flood where data center build-outs land into softer demand. The right tail is deliberately fat at $7.50: persistent power constraints 2 sources coupled with an automated-R&D demand shock bid marginal compute up heavily toward its human-labor substitute value.