To resolve YES, a single publisher must release a measure of AI R&D speedup on three distinct occasions, spaced at least 12 months apart, using a strictly unchanged methodology. While there is ample calendar runway before the end of 2029, the binding constraint is maintaining methodological stability for at least two years in an environment where AI tooling and evaluation frameworks are churning rapidly. Furthermore, the measure must capture genuine research speedup or uplift in value, rather th
Evaluating the rapid iteration of AI evaluation frameworks alongside shared constraints in R&D uplift measurement slightly trimmed the estimate, as developers remain highly incentivized to continually revise their methodologies rather than freeze them for multiple years.
Resolution Requirements and Status Quo. A positive resolution demands a strict conjunction of events by the end of 2031: a frontier developer must publicly declare its own AI-research-automation threshold reached, and it must publicly report a halt or pause in capability development because of that threshold. As of late 2026, no developer is near these limits. Anthropic explicitly notes that it has not seen a sustained 2x acceleration in its pace of progress anthropic.com, and OpenAI de
Evaluating this forecast against related expectations for AI governance timelines and R&D automation confirmed that labs face immense commercial pressure to avoid unilateral development halts, leaving our original estimate stable.
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