As of late August 2026, AI contributions exist on the NanoGPT speedrun leaderboard, but they are always paired with a human handle github.com. The barrier to an AI-only record is partly capability—autonomous agents still struggle with deep algorithmic changes intology.ai—but largely attribution convention, as the rules already permit AI-only submissions github.com. In a scenario of rapid AI automation, capable agents could close the gap entirely by mid-2027 (p10) or early 2028 (p25), and a vendor might use an AI-only submission as a deliberate PR stunt. This tracks closely with expected timelines for broader AI R&D attribution milestones . Under a steadier capability progression, we expect this around mid-2029 (p50) to maintain a consistent gap between achieving an informal leaderboard milestone and passing rigorous long-horizon benchmarks . However, if the leaderboard loses community relevance, shifts to private/bespoke optimization tracks, or tightens verification rules requiring human accountability, this event could be delayed significantly, pulling the p75 into late 2031 and the p90 into early 2035.