The event in question has already occurred. The AI Futures Project published a revision to Daniel Kokotajlo's median date for the Automated Coder (AC) milestone on August 16, 2026. Because this question resolves strictly on a publication event rather than the real-world arrival of automated coding, the forecast distribution is a near-point mass centered on that date, with a narrow one-day spread on either side serving only to satisfy the requirement for strictly increasing percentiles.

The relevant update, titled "Q2.5 2026 Timelines Update: Uplift and Revenue," was published on the project's blog on August 16, 2026 blog.aifutures.org. This post directly addresses the lapsed quarterly cadence noted in the background, attributing the delay to intermediate work on "AI 2040: Plan A" and the implementation of internal model changes 2 sources. Prior to this August 16 release, no qualifying timelines update had appeared since the Q1 post on April 2, 2026. Intervening publications, such as a post on pacing the US frontier on August 5, 2026, discussed timelines generally but did not revise the specific median estimates blog.aifutures.org.

The August 16 post explicitly contains the revised figures required to trigger resolution. It features a before-and-after comparison of Kokotajlo's AC arrival dates, detailing how his outlook changed since April blog.aifutures.org. The updated figures shift his median expectation from roughly May 2028 down to November/December 2027 2 sources. These updates are corroborated by versioned artifacts hosted directly on the project's site, comparing the daniel-04-02-26 run with the new daniel-08-16-26 forecast aifuturesmodel.com.

The resolution criteria are highly permissive, allowing the revision to appear "in any format (blog post, model update, timelines page)." The August 16 release simultaneously satisfies several of these formats 2 sources. Although the revised medians appear in chart captions and versioned links rather than as standalone prose declarations, this level of detail unambiguously meets the standard for a published revision. Finally, per the strict attribution standards, these dates (e.g., November 2027) are treated exclusively as evidence of a publication event by the AI Futures Project team, not as factual indicators of when automated coding will actually be achieved.