What Has to Happen Resolution requires OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind to state publicly that a model of its own has crossed, or is expected within the next generation to cross, its automated-AI-R&D capability threshold. Crucially, hedged language such as "plausible," "may," or "could" is insufficient—an explicit crossing determination or a firm forward-looking expectation is required. As of late August 2026, none of the labs have reached this mark. Notably, OpenAI's recent pause of As
Set against related questions, this was adjusted slightly later to align with our broader estimate that labs will likely adjust safety frameworks to avoid premature threshold crossings, while still capturing the 9% chance of an early Anthropic crossing .
Final Estimates: 10th percentile at September 2028, 25th percentile at May 2030, median at September 2033, 75th percentile at January 2039, and 90th percentile at January 2049. The Resolution Standard and Current Status Initial logic and parameters are validated. Capability Ambitions vs. Reality Standard processing applied. Structural Disincentives for a Public Declaration Standard processing applied. Trajectory and the Long Tail Consistent with an updated assessment of the likel
Shifted the distribution slightly later to remain consistent with an updated assessment of the likelihood that labs will officially claim full automation of key research categories before 2032 .
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