The final outcome is firmly established: Humans direct and AI implements (24%), AI proposes experiments and humans select (37%), AI runs the full experiment loop while humans set research agendas (26%), AI sets research agendas with humans auditing outcomes (8%), and No material change from 2026 (5%). Initial logic and parameters are validated regarding Anthropic and OpenAI risk reports axios.com. The verified baseline in mid-2026 sits at 'humans direct and AI implements' [fc:a7845ac4-217
Weighed alongside timeline questions, probabilities were slightly consolidated around AI proposing or running bounded experiment loops, as full agenda-setting faces strong safety-framework resistance .
The plurality probability on 'None of these before 2032-01-01' (50%) stems from the severe strictness of all three event triggers, contrasting with the heavily hedged and evolutionary reality of AI R&D. Even if autonomous agent capabilities scale to massive expenditure horizons by 2029 , labs face structural, liability, and safety disincentives against making absolute triumphal claims that eliminate human accountability. There is a substantial chance that
Evaluating the structural hurdles to legal interventions on internal R&D slightly shifted probability away from government restrictions being the first event to occur, marginally increasing the likelihood that no qualifying trigger happens before 2032.
Ask a followup
Sign in to run · $20 free credit, no card · every claim cited