Of the four SpaceX bull-case milestones (M1, M2, M3, M4 as defined in the shared context), how many will resolve YES by their respective resolution dates?

rationale:

This forecast evaluates four SpaceX bull-case milestones, primarily mapping to the fundamental operational drivers. Starlink reaching 15 million subscribers (M1) is favorable at 76% . The $10B annualized AI revenue target (M3) is also highly probable (87%) based on existing run-rates . Achieving a fully successful Starship orbital payload deployment (M2) remains highly likely (~89%) given the aggressive flight cadence spacex.com. However, the free cash flow positive milestone (M4) is severely bottlenecked by massive AI capex, aligning strictly with our 15% bull-case scenario where aggressive monetization and capex discipline take hold early. Consequently, the 'all 4 of 4' probability is set at 2%, directly capturing the likelihood of the broader free-cash-flow positive scenario. Evaluated alongside related individual milestone projections, these thresholds ensure mathematical consistency with their underlying probabilities. The expected structural correlations and sector risks shift the middle of the distribution: the probability for 'at least 3' is 67%, while the probability for 'at least 2' rests at 90% and 'at least 1' remains a near certainty (98%), reflecting robust baseline growth.