Of the four SpaceX bull-case milestones (M1, M2, M3, M4 as defined in the shared context), how many will resolve YES by their respective resolution dates?

rationale:

The probability distribution across the four milestones degrades steeply at the top end, driven by a severe bottleneck at M4 (positive free cash flow). The overall curve reflects a combination of high marginal probabilities for the growth milestones (M1, M3), moderate execution risk for Starship (M2), and strict structural constraints on near-term cash generation (M4).

At least 1 of 4 (98%): Near certainty, effectively carried by M1 (Starlink subscribers). Starlink reached ~12M active customers by June 2026 finance.yahoo.com [Yahoo/c98020], up from 10.3M paid subs in Q1 pcmag.com. Bridging the gap to 15M by year-end requires adding ~460K users per month, comfortably below the recent ~700-850K/month trajectory.

At least 2 of 4 (84%): Highly robust. M3 (AI revenue) provides a strong second pillar. Cursor reached an estimated $4B annualized run rate in early June forbes.com, and xAI demonstrated a ~$3.3B run rate in Q1 spacenews.com. With massive compute contracts in play—such as Anthropic at $1.25B/month datacenterdynamics.com and Google at $920M/month techcrunch.com—clearing the $10B threshold by year-end is highly probable, even after discounting for termination rights and delivery conditions.

At least 3 of 4 (48%): This threshold effectively represents the joint probability of M1, M2, and M3. The drop-off reflects execution and timeline risks tied to M2 (Starship). While Flight 12 was encouraging, it remained a suborbital test deploying simulators spacex.com space.com. SpaceX targets orbital payload delivery in H2 2026 spacenews.com, leaving a reasonable buffer before the June 2027 deadline. However, the strict 'fully successful operational/commercial' requirement leaves M2 exposed to standard aerospace schedule slippage.

All 4 of 4 (10%): The full bull case is strictly capped by M4. SpaceX's current financial profile makes near-term positive quarterly FCF highly improbable: Q1 2026 saw a net loss of ~$4.3B and $10.1B in capex—driven heavily by $7.72B in AI buildout morningstar.com—resulting in roughly -$9B in FCF. There is an inherent structural tension here: the massive capital expenditure required to achieve the AI and Starship growth milestones actively suppresses cash flow. While a perfectly synchronized regime featuring massive AI compute cash receipts and favorable capex timing offers a narrow path to success, M4 acts as a firm bottleneck holding the clean sweep to 10%.