Of the four SpaceX bull-case milestones (M1, M2, M3, M4 as defined in the shared context), how many will resolve YES by their respective resolution dates?

rationale:

The modal outcome for SpaceX's milestones is exactly three out of four resolving YES, driven by strong operational momentum across Starlink, Starship, and AI, but ultimately blocked by the massive capital expenditures required to sustain that growth. The "at least 3" threshold sits at 73%, heavily dependent on the joint probability of the first three milestones. The "all 4" outcome is capped at 2% due to a fundamental tension: the aggressive AI infrastructure buildout securing the AI revenue target (M3) essentially precludes positive free cash flow (M4) in the near term.

The rapid expansion of SpaceX's AI segment makes the $10B annualized revenue target (M3) highly probable, but it comes at a steep cost to free cash flow (M4). In Q2 2026, the AI segment already generated $2.561B in revenue—a $10.2B annualized run-rate s21.q4cdn.com. Layering on the expected Q3 close of the $60B Cursor acquisition, which reportedly reached a $4B run-rate in June s21.q4cdn.com, pushes the combined entity comfortably past the $10B mark. However, this growth requires staggering capital investment: H1 2026 AI capex alone was $23.551B, driving total H1 free cash flow to roughly -$25B 2 sources. Management has guided that total capex will remain near Q2's $18.4B level in the coming quarters investing.com. Overcoming a $16B+ quarterly gap between operating cash flow and capex by mid-2027 is functionally impossible without an abrupt and unexpected halt to the AI buildout.

Starlink's trajectory toward 15 million subscribers by the end of 2026 (M1) is also highly favorable. The service reached 12.0M subscribers in Q2 2026, up from 10.3M in Q1, representing an accelerating addition of 1.7M net new users in the quarter s21.q4cdn.com. Reaching the 15M threshold requires maintaining a run-rate of roughly 1.5M additions per quarter through the second half of the year, which is below the current pace. External KPI markets price the >15M subscriber outcome at approximately 99% coinbase.com. While there is minor definitional risk around active versus total subscribers and potential saturation in higher-income markets, the underlying momentum is robust.

For Starship (M2), achieving a fully successful operational orbital mission with intended payload deployment by June 2027 is highly likely, tracking around 90%. While Flight 13 in July 2026 deployed V3 satellites, it was a suborbital flight test with payloads expected to demise on reentry spacex.com. However, Flight 14 targets true operational orbit for V3 satellites spacenews.com. With approximately 11 months of runway and a targeted cadence increasing toward one flight per day, the sheer number of upcoming attempts provides a wide margin for error. The primary risks are sustained regulatory stand-downs faa.gov or anomalies that ground the fleet, but a single operational success is highly probable within the timeframe.

Ultimately, the probabilities aggregate into a near-certainty for "at least 1" (99%) and "at least 2" (97%), as any combination of Starlink growth, Starship success, or AI revenue scaling easily clears the lower thresholds. The step down to "at least 3" (73%) reflects the compounded minor risks across M1, M2, and M3. M4 remains the definitive bottleneck, keeping "all 4" at a marginal 2% tail risk that would require an unprecedented and unguided reversal in SpaceX's capital allocation strategy.