What will SpaceX's total consolidated revenue (USD billions) be for full-year 2026?

SpaceX's FY2026 consolidated revenue forecast centers on a median of $24.27B, built upon the firm anchor of Q1 2026 actuals. In Q1, the company reported $4.694B in revenue, representing a modest 15% YoY growth reuters.com. Annualizing this flat run-rate provides a hard floor of roughly $18.8B, establishing a highly confident 10th percentile at $20.43B. To bridge to the $24.27B median, we expect back-half acceleration driven by three factors: Starlink sequential growth, defense milestones, and partial-year consolidation of Cursor. Starlink remains the core revenue engine (~$15.5B to $17B), though its pure subscriber-driven upside is increasingly constrained by ARPU compression, which has fallen to $66/month cnbc.com. Space and launch will contribute roughly $4B to $5B, supported by an expanding $22B defense backlog and rising Falcon 9 cadence. Crucially, the $60B acquisition of Cursor will only contribute to FY2026 after its anticipated Q3 close; this partial-year consolidation limits its direct top-line impact to $0.6B to $1.2B. The distribution is highly asymmetric, with a fat right tail extending to $27.67B at the 75th percentile and $32.60B at the 90th. This upside volatility is almost entirely driven by the xAI compute segment. While Q1 AI revenue was only ~$430M, aggressive bull-case scenarios hinge on the execution of massive, unconfirmed compute capacity contracts with major AI labs techcrunch.com sec.gov. If these materialize and successfully navigate revenue recognition rules, capacity delivery constraints, and termination risks by H2 2026, they could inject billions in incremental revenue. Conversely, downside scenarios (p25 at $22.13B) reflect further Starlink ARPU deterioration, Cursor regulatory or integration delays, and a failure to scale xAI enterprise revenue beyond its baseline Q1 trajectory.