What will SpaceX's total consolidated revenue (USD billions) be for full-year 2026?

SpaceX's Q2 2026 report establishes a firm baseline, with H1 2026 revenue banked at $12.508B 3 sources. Connectivity (Starlink) remains the foundational driver at $7.548B for the half s21.q4cdn.com. However, the AI compute segment is now the primary growth engine, surging 247% YoY in Q2 to $2.561B 2 sources. The full-year forecast therefore reduces strictly to the steepness of the H2 ramp, dictated almost entirely by AI cloud services recognition. Visibility into the H2 step-up is unusually high due to a $47.5B backlog and $14.1B in initial cloud agreements 44 sources. Crucially, management disclosed an additional $6.7B in cloud services contracted to ramp over a six-month period beginning in October 2026 3 sources. This contract alone adds roughly $3.3B to Q4. Furthermore, the pending $60B acquisition of Cursor is expected to close in Q3, meaning its revenue will consolidate for part of H2 2 sources. When analyzed with related operational targets, revenue percentiles account for the heavy expected impact of the AI cloud service ramp-up in the second half of the year. This aggressive scale-out pushes our median expectation to ~$41.3B, pushing the AI segment well past a $10B run rate and aligning with our $47B AI run-rate exit projection . Tail risks remain wide: downside (P10 ~$35.1B) vulnerabilities include data-center energization delays or slipped contract timelines sec.gov, while upside (P90 ~$51.5B) assumes AI capacity deployment surpasses expectations and is aggressively monetized.