What will SPCX's closing share price (USD) be 5 trading days after the first scheduled post-IPO insider share unlock?

Targeting five trading days post-unlock (roughly December 15, 2026), this forecast captures the immediate market digestion of the massive 180-day lockup expiry on December 8, which is expected to release roughly 1.3 billion shares. While the stock has shown impressive resilience recently, absorbing the late-August lockup releases and stabilizing in the $134–$139 range , the massive sequential supply influx in December will mechanically pressure the price s21.q4cdn.com. Ongoing AI-capex concerns and the looming supply overhang will likely invite front-running, pulling the median to $97.0. This blends the stock's recent baseline strength with the structural constraints of year-end pricing . Weighing this alongside earlier and later post-unlock milestones, the distribution is kept relatively stable to reflect peak supply pressure immediately after the December unlock. The wide distribution accounts for extreme volatility: a bearish flush, where insider liquidity temporarily overwhelms organic demand, could trigger a cascading sell-off down through $78.0 (p25) to $62.0 (p10). Conversely, a bullish scenario—driven by massive short interest, index buying, or major contract validation that easily absorbs the float expansion—provides a substantial right tail climbing through $125.0 (p75) up to $155.0 (p90).