What will SPCX's closing share price (USD) be 30 calendar days after the IPO insider lockup expires?

The 180-day lockup expiration represents the primary bearish catalyst for SPCX, driving a massive supply expansion that will likely erase much of the current float-scarcity premium. Based on the June 11, 2026 IPO prospectus, the 180-day lockup expires on December 8, 2026 2 sources, putting our 30-day observation window around January 7-19, 2027. SPCX's current price near $192 implies a ~$2.5T valuation, which is heavily disconnected from near-term fundamentals. The company trades at over 100x FY2025 revenue while posting substantial losses, including a $4.3B Q1 2026 net loss sec.gov. Fundamental anchors sit far below current trading levels: Morningstar's DCF fair value is roughly $63/share ($780B) 2 sources, CFRA's target is $115 cnbc.com, and a sum-of-the-parts analysis yields a median near $96/share. The ~$192 price is primarily an artifact of an extremely tight ~4% float squeezed by passive index buying, such as MSCI inclusion flows reuters.com. By the 180-day mark, the tradable float is projected to expand roughly 13-fold to ~58% of the company businessinsider.com. Early investors with $30-60 cost bases have massive incentives to lock in profits, creating heavy downward pressure. However, mitigating factors prevent a total collapse to the fundamental DCF range. First, the lock-up agreement includes early staged releases (e.g., price-triggered, post-Q2 and Q3 results) that smooth out the supply shock over the fall rather than creating a December cliff d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net. Second, Elon Musk's ~42% block remains locked until June 2027, removing the largest potential seller. Third, as the float expands, index fund weighting constraints will loosen, forcing additional passive buying msci.com. Finally, structural 'Tesla-halo' retail premiums and AI optionality via the $60B Cursor acquisition sec.gov and its reported ~$4B annualized revenue techcrunch.com provide strong narrative support. My median estimate of $138.7 reflects a partial post-scarcity derating, converging back toward the $135 IPO offer price as supply normalizes, but retaining a premium over fundamental anchors. The tails are exceptionally wide given the stock's extreme observed volatility. The 10th percentile ($78) captures a sharp fundamental correction if unlocked sellers exit aggressively and momentum breaks. Conversely, the 90th percentile ($240) accounts for a scenario where successful Starship/Starlink milestones and persistent mega-cap AI mania fully offset the supply unlock, holding the price near or above its recent all-time highs.