What will SPCX's closing share price (USD) be 30 calendar days after the IPO insider lockup expires?

Targeting roughly January 7, 2027 (30 calendar days after the December 8 IPO lockup expiration), this estimate captures the market equilibrium as peak insider supply is digested. The median sits at $104, reflecting the stock's recent success in absorbing massive flow without collapsing, having stabilized in the $134–$139 range by late August. Despite this resilience, the median accounts for anticipated headwinds and mirrors the tempered valuation expected immediately after Q3 earnings . By early January, staggered supply releases will be largely processed, allowing passive index demand from December rebalances to help establish a floor. Set against the immediate post-unlock timeline, this distribution rests slightly higher to reflect the digestion of supply and passive index buying by early January. The distribution remains wide to capture divergent structural scenarios. A bear case pushes the lower bounds to $65–$84 if mechanical supply from the December lockups and heavy AI capital expenditures eventually overwhelm demand, leading to buyer exhaustion. A bull case accounts for a structural support or short squeeze scenario where institutional demand easily absorbs future supply, and fundamental validation alongside passive inflows forces a violent re-rating toward $135–$170.