Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

probability: 3%

rationale:

Summary The probability of the Strait of Hormuz reaching a 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls by June 30 is estimated at 3%, reflecting the near-impossibility of overcoming current physical, diplomatic, and commercial hurdles in the remaining three weeks. As of June 9, the 7-day moving average stands at roughly 5 ships per day cnbc.com, representing a massive collapse from the pre-conflict baseline of 100 to 138 daily arrivals 2 sources. To achieve resolution, the Strait must see an average of 60 recorded daily transits for a full week, meaning a sustained surge must begin no later than June 24. A diplomatic agreement has not yet materialized, with a recent proposal rejected on June 9 en.wikipedia.org. Even if a comprehensive peace deal were signed immediately, structural and security barriers prevent a rapid resumption of traffic. Deal frameworks reportedly include a 30-day window for mine clearance operations thehill.com, making safe passage physically impossible before mid-July. Furthermore, commercial shipping operators and insurers require definitive peace agreements and demonstrable security guarantees before risking valuable vessels and crews cnn.com. These commercial delays, combined with structural shifts to alternative land routes manifold.markets, mean that maritime traffic will likely take until September to normalize news.usni.org. Given the strictly bound timeline, the mechanical requirements for a sustained 7-day average, and the logistical realities of post-conflict maritime recovery, there is simply not enough time for the required conditions to be met by the end of June.

Strongest Arguments for Yes • Pre-conflict traffic easily cleared the threshold, averaging between 100 and 138 ships per day 2 sources, meaning the structural capacity exists if conditions suddenly permit. • There is a substantial backlog of hundreds of stranded ships in the region reuters.com. If a sudden diplomatic breakthrough allows for heavily escorted convoys, this backlog could be released at once, theoretically generating a brief but massive spike in daily transits. • High-level statements have occasionally suggested imminent breakthroughs, with recent claims that a deal to reopen the Strait is "two or three days away" and that traffic is already beginning to rise 3 sources.

Strongest Arguments for No • The mathematical gap is overwhelming. Traffic must surge from an average of 5 to 60 ships per day and sustain that volume for a full week, requiring an abrupt 12x increase that must begin by June 24 at the latest cnbc.com. • Security barriers dictate a slow recovery. Any realistic deal framework mandates at least 30 days for mine clearance thehill.com, meaning the waters will not be physically safe for commercial volumes until well past the June 30 deadline. • Commercial realities prohibit immediate normalization. Shipping executives and insurers demand a definitive peace agreement and durable security guarantees cnn.com, with evidence suggesting that insurance markets and crew confidence will take months to recover news.usni.org. • Resolution relies strictly on IMF Portwatch data, which tracks vessels using AIS transponders. Because many ships are turning off their transponders ("going dark") due to the hostile environment and GPS spoofing portwatch.imf.org, the reported numbers will undercount actual physical traffic even if movement increases.

Key Uncertainties • Diplomatic Breakthroughs: An unexpected and comprehensive peace agreement signed in the next few days could accelerate recovery timelines. If this resolves alongside unprecedented international security escorts, it might marginally increase the chances of a sudden, measurable traffic surge. • Backlog Release Dynamics: If the Strait is declared open, how the accumulated backlog of waiting vessels is managed will directly impact daily numbers. Moving ships in organized, large-scale convoys could temporarily spike the 7-day moving average, though sustaining it for a full week remains a major hurdle. • Permanence of Route Diversions: It is unclear how deeply commercial operators have committed to alternative supply chains, such as regional landbridges manifold.markets. If logistics have permanently shifted, daily traffic may not reach the 60-ship threshold even long after the waterway is fully secured.