Question
Will the US federal government enact legislation, executive order, or regulatory rule that restricts or effectively prohibits Waymo's importation of Zeekr-built Ojai chassis from China before June 30, 2027?
Summary The probability of the US federal government enacting legislation, executive orders, or regulatory rules that restrict or prohibit Waymo's importation of Zeekr-built Ojai chassis before June 30, 2027, is estimated at 20%. Waymo currently imports stripped-down "glider" chassis from Zeekr, a subsidiary of the Chinese automaker Geely, and outfits them with proprietary autonomous driving hardware and software domestically wired.com. While this practice technically bypasses the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) connected vehicle rules—which target Chinese hardware and software rather than bare chassis 2 sources—it has drawn intense political scrutiny. Senator Bernie Moreno explicitly accused Waymo of "getting in bed with China" businessinsider.com and, alongside Senator Elissa Slotkin, introduced the Connected Vehicle Security Act of 2026 to permanently prohibit the importation of Chinese-linked automobiles, parts, and software 2 sources. Despite this political momentum and the introduction of parallel House legislation cnbc.com, translating rhetoric into enacted federal law or definitive executive action within the 13-month timeframe leading up to June 2027 faces significant hurdles. The standard legislative process is generally slow, making the rapid passage of targeted bills highly challenging. Furthermore, the Commerce Department recently demonstrated a willingness to grant case-by-case exemptions rather than enforcing blanket bans, notably authorizing Geely-owned Volvo to continue importing connected vehicles 2 sources. Combined with Alphabet's formidable lobbying resources and a broader pro-autonomous vehicle stance in Washington, evidence suggests Waymo will successfully defend its legal interpretation or secure regulatory waivers. Waymo is also actively absorbing existing 100% tariffs on the low base value of these chassis without halting imports wired.com, meaning purely economic deterrents through general tariff increases are unlikely to cross the threshold of making the practice "economically unviable."
Strongest Arguments for Yes
- Bipartisan legislative momentum: Senators Moreno and Slotkin introduced the Connected Vehicle Security Act of 2026 nbcnews.com, with a companion bill in the House cnbc.com, directly aiming to seal the US auto market from Chinese-linked vehicles and parts eletric-vehicles.com.
- Direct targeting of Waymo: Senator Moreno specifically highlighted and criticized Waymo's practice of importing Zeekr "gliders" during a February 2026 Senate Commerce Committee hearing, calling it a "backdoor" to bypass connected vehicle rules businessinsider.com.
- Domestic alternatives reduce political risk: Waymo has arranged a tariff-free backup supply of Hyundai Ioniq 5s built in Georgia, starting in Q4 2026. This domestic availability lowers the political cost for regulators or lawmakers to ban Zeekr imports, as it would not entirely shut down Waymo's operations.
Strongest Arguments for No
- Regulatory exemptions and precedents: Waymo's "gliders" lack Chinese software or connectivity, positioning them outside current BIS restrictions 2 sources. Furthermore, the Commerce Department recently granted Volvo—also owned by Zeekr's parent company Geely—an exemption to continue importing connected vehicles 2 sources, signaling a preference for case-by-case authorizations over blanket bans.
- Slow legislative timelines: The Connected Vehicle Security Act was only introduced in late April and May 2026 2 sources. Passing comprehensive trade and technology restrictions through both chambers of Congress before the June 2027 deadline is highly improbable.
- High threshold for economic unviability: Waymo already absorbs a 100% EV tariff and a 25% national security tariff on the Zeekr chassis. Because the base value is relatively low (~$10-20K), the added cost has not halted imports wired.com. General tariff increases are unlikely to outright prohibit the practice.
Key Uncertainties
- Commerce Department administrative actions: The Department of Commerce could issue new guidance or update existing BIS rules using existing emergency authorities to explicitly include "gliders" or bare chassis. If they take this aggressive regulatory route, the probability of a ban would sharply increase.
- Escalation in US-China trade relations: A sudden deterioration in geopolitical relations or broader trade conflicts could prompt an emergency executive order sweeping in all Chinese automotive imports, regardless of connectivity status.
- Waymo's lobbying efficacy: Alphabet possesses immense lobbying power in Washington. If Waymo can successfully leverage this influence to secure official waivers or water down the language in emerging legislation, the likelihood of an effective prohibition drops significantly.