Will the US federal government enact legislation, executive order, or regulatory rule that restricts or effectively prohibits Waymo's importation of Zeekr-built Ojai chassis from China before June 30, 2027?

probability: 27%

rationale:

Waymo currently bypasses the existing Commerce/BIS ICTS connected-vehicle rule by importing Zeekr-built (Geely) Ojai chassis from China as stripped-down, "disconnected gliders." Because these units arrive without native sensors, computing systems, or telematics hardware—and Waymo integrates its U.S.-developed autonomy stack domestically in Mesa, Arizona—they do not qualify as "completed connected vehicles" at the time of entry 44 sources. Consequently, despite an effective duty burden of roughly 127.5%, thousands of these chassis have continued to clear customs through the Port of Los Angeles into mid-2026 2 sources. The existing Commerce restrictions on software and Vehicle Connectivity System (VCS) hardware do not currently bite on this specific supply chain configuration.

The administration's recent enforcement posture suggests a preference for case-by-case risk mitigation rather than sweeping new bans that would immediately close this glider loophole. In May 2026, Commerce granted Volvo Cars—which shares Geely as a parent company with Zeekr—a specific authorization to continue importing and selling connected vehicles in the U.S. following negotiations over data security and governance 44 sources. While Commerce did deny a similar authorization to Polestar in June 2026 reuters.com, the Volvo exemption demonstrates that Geely-linked entities are not subject to a blanket embargo. Furthermore, no executive orders or new BIS rulemakings between June and August 2026 have targeted Chinese-built commercial gliders forbes.com, making an unforeseen regulatory or executive prohibition before June 2027 a low-probability tail risk.

The primary threat to Waymo’s imports is the Moreno-Slotkin Connected Vehicle Security Act of 2026 (S.4429 / H.R.8730). This legislation is explicitly drafted to capture the glider workaround, prohibiting the importation and sale of vehicles originating from covered countries "regardless of whether such capability is enabled, disabled, or removed at the time of importation" or installed later 3 sources. The bill has genuine bipartisan momentum, boasting 40 cosponsors and a unanimous favorable report from the Senate Commerce Committee in July 2026 congress.gov. If enacted in its current form, it would effectively prohibit the Zeekr imports and resolve this question affirmatively.

However, the path to enactment before the June 30, 2027 deadline is constrained by severe procedural and political headwinds. S.4429 has not received a Senate floor vote, and the House companion remains stalled across three committees congress.gov. The bill faces fierce industry pushback, notably from European automakers like Mercedes-Benz, which would be ensnared by the legislation's strict 15% Chinese-ownership threshold 2 sources. Crucially, the 119th Congress ends in early January 2027. Unless the bill is attached to a must-pass vehicle like the FY2027 NDAA during the lame-duck session, it will die and require reintroduction in the new Congress, leaving a very narrow window to clear both chambers before mid-2027.

Finally, political urgency to specifically target Waymo's operations may be diminishing. Waymo has established a U.S.-built hedge using Hyundai Ioniq 5s assembled at the Georgia Metaplant, with shipments beginning in Q4 2026 waymo.com, and has signaled interest in Detroit-based platforms reuters.com. This shift makes a negotiated grandfathering clause or phase-out period more politically palatable if legislation does advance. Ultimately, while the legislative mechanism to ban these imports exists and is gaining traction, the combination of a compressed congressional calendar, heavy industry lobbying, and a flexible executive posture keeps the probability of a binding restriction materializing before July 2027 relatively low.