Will the US federal government enact legislation, executive order, or regulatory rule that restricts or effectively prohibits Waymo's importation of Zeekr-built Ojai chassis from China before June 30, 2027?

probability: 33%

rationale:

The 33% probability is driven primarily by the prospect of the Connected Vehicle Security Act (S. 4429) passing in the post-election lame-duck session or early 2027. Currently, Waymo avoids the January 2025 Commerce Department connected-vehicle rule by importing the Zeekr-built Ojai as a bare "glider" without Chinese connectivity hardware or software 3 sources. With over 2,600 of these chassis entering the US in 2026 alone en.wikipedia.org, legislative action is the most viable path to close this loophole before June 2027, as executive or regulatory avenues appear relatively dormant.

The proposed S. 4429 poses a direct threat to the Ojai. The committee-reported text prohibits importing connected vehicles tied to China starting January 1, 2027, and explicitly covers vehicles altered to circumvent the law—language that would almost certainly catch a glider retrofitted with US autonomy systems govinfo.gov. The bill boasts unanimous Senate Commerce Committee approval and widespread bipartisan cosponsorship 2 sources. Lawmakers are actively scrutinizing Waymo's imports, with co-sponsor Sen. Bernie Moreno publicly urging Waymo to shift to Detroit-built vehicles axios.com. Even if Waymo qualifies for the bill's Section 11(d) delay for established commercial fleets govinfo.gov, the resulting compliance and reporting mandates would likely still meet the threshold for a "restriction."

Despite strong bipartisan momentum, enactment faces steep procedural hurdles, which caps the overall probability. Senator Rand Paul has blocked fast-track passage by unanimous consent due to concerns that the bill's 15% Chinese-ownership limit would ensnare Mercedes-Benz 2 sources. Supporters hope to attach an amended version to the year-end defense authorization bill (NDAA) aiada.org, but the lame-duck session is heavily congested with a December 11 funding deadline and competing priorities hklaw.com. Furthermore, the White House has remained notably uncommitted to the legislation, and recent statements signaling an openness to Chinese automakers building in the US introduce further uncertainty 3 sources. If the bill dies at the end of the 119th Congress, it faces a very tight window for reintroduction and passage by June 2027.

Action outside of Congress is possible but less probable, adding roughly 3 to 5 percentage points to the baseline forecast. The Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has not issued a public advisory opinion regarding Waymo's specific glider strategy 2 sources. While Commerce has demonstrated a willingness to crack down on Geely-associated vehicles—such as denying Polestar model-year 2027 sales in June 2026 en.wikipedia.org—there are no pending rulemakings or executive orders currently targeting the Ojai. The resolution ultimately hinges on whether the legislative momentum behind S. 4429 can survive the chaotic lame-duck calendar or secure rapid passage under a new Congress in early 2027.