Why are US roofing shingle sales declining, and what is the outlook?

outlook:

The near-term outlook for the next 12-24 months is subdued, projecting flat to low-single-digit shipment declines absent major natural disasters. Quarter-to-quarter volatility will remain high due to weather anomalies and distributor inventory corrections. The Freedonia Group forecasts US asphalt shingle demand to trend down 1.1% annually through 2028 as the recent replacement boom unwinds freedoniagroup.com. However, a structural market collapse is prevented by an aging housing stock and a demand mix that is over 80% non-discretionary repair/replacement. A durable upward trajectory would require an uptick in severe convective storms/hurricanes, a drop in mortgage rates to unfreeze housing turnover, or a stabilization in single-family construction starts.

summary:

The US roofing shingle market is currently undergoing a cyclical normalization following robust 2023-2024 performance, marked by a significant contraction in shipment volumes. Asphalt shingle shipments fell approximately 10-11% in 2025 to roughly 143-155 million squares, down from a peak of 172 million in 2024. This volume decline persisted into early 2026, with first-half shipments down 4.7% year-over-year. Despite the drop in physical units, manufacturers have partly insulated their revenues through aggressive pricing and a continued consumer shift toward higher-margin architectural laminated shingles.

primary_drivers:

1. Storm-Claim Normalization and Insurance Pushback: A lack of major landfalling hurricanes in 2025 and lower severe convective storm losses in H1 2026 removed critical non-discretionary demand swissre.com. Simultaneously, insurers are pushing back via a regulatory shift toward actual cash value (ACV) roof policies morningstar.com, higher deductibles, and stricter adjustment protocols like State Farm's Wind/Hail Initiative homepros.news. 2. Housing Turnover Slump: Existing home sales sit near 30-year lows due to the mortgage lock-in effect, removing pre-sale and post-purchase reroofing catalysts. 3. Affordability constraints: Shingle replacement costs have surged, pushing homeowners to defer maintenance. 4. Cycle Unwinding and Alternative Materials: Demand is naturally cooling after a 2020-2023 reroofing surge freedoniagroup.com, while metal roofing steadily captures market share, now reaching 17-18% of the residential space theroofingbrief.com.

manufacturer_data_points:

Manufacturer and distributor disclosures vividly illustrate the downturn's magnitude. Owens Corning reported a 27% year-over-year plunge in Q4 2025 roofing sales and a 14% drop in Q1 2026, estimating the broader US asphalt shingle market fell from 160 million to 143 million squares in 2025 s21.q4cdn.com. Saint-Gobain (CertainTeed) corroborated this, noting US roofing volumes fell 18% in Q3 2025 and 17% in Q4 2025 due to a quiet storm season. Among distributors, Home Depot/SRS characterized Q4 2025 as the weakest shipment quarter since 2019. Big-box retail data mirrored this, with Datavations tracking a 31% year-over-year Q1 2026 shingle revenue drop across major home centers. By Q2 2026, Owens Corning warned that a slight volume uptick was merely an inventory pull-forward ahead of announced price increases, guiding for high-single-digit ARMA shipment declines in Q3 2026 s21.q4cdn.com.