Will 2026 be the hottest year on record globally?

probability: 73%

rationale:

(a) Time left: about 161 days to formal resolution, but only roughly the rest of Sep-Dec 2026 remains to determine the annual average. (b) Status quo: if current conditions simply persist, YES is now slightly favored, because 2026 has shifted from a middling start to record-like late-summer warmth berkeleyearth.org. (c) Scope check: on the broad 2026-27 horizon, a new record soon looks very likely; on the narrow scope that matters here, the issue is whether calendar-year 2026 specifically can overcome its cooler first half and beat 2024. (d) Why NO: 2026 started relatively cool, ranked only around 2nd/3rd warmest YTD, and the El Nino peak is expected late in the year, with a 3-6 month lag that may push much of the atmospheric warming into 2027; Berkeley Earth also viewed a land-only record as very unlikely 44 sources. (e) Why YES: August 2026 was the warmest August on record, global SSTs hit all-time highs, the developing El Nino is tracking as potentially historic, and Berkeley Earth raised its estimate to about 69%; the underlying warming trend raises the floor further 44 sources. (f) Bet framing: I would buy YES below about 70% and buy NO above about 76%, so my fair price is near 73%. I shade below the hottest markets at 77-80% because the calendar-window/lag risk is real 2 sources, but above a coin flip because the observed heat has already become exceptional rather than merely forecast exceptional berkeleyearth.org.